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AVAH

Aveanna HealthcareB
Nasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue grew 13.7% and adjusted EBITDA grew 8.0%, prompting higher 2026 guidance. Continued private-duty growth and better margin conversion could support upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
What can break
August Form 4 records show sales by 10% owners. The reported holdings may overlap, so the transactions should not be summed into a single independent-sale figure or read as evidence of operating weakness. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-24]
Momentum
72
Value
63
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.00 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-10-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-02 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-02 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-02

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-02. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.05
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d -0.3
Value63 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment47 · Δ7d +3.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • August Form 4 records show sales by 10% owners. The reported holdings may overlap, so the transactions should not be summed into a single independent-sale figure or read as evidence of operating weakness. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-24]
  • • Execution risk increased with the raised full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13]
  • • Q2 gross margin declined 3.2 percentage points despite revenue growth.

Catalyst clock

2027-03-31

Test of raised 2026 guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
72
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-16.7
Value
63
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
47
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
-12.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 71.6 / Value 63.5 / Sentiment 46.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-10. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-02
Market Cap
$2.86B
Beta
2.06
Shares Out
218.29M
P/E (TTM)
22.4
P/S (TTM)
0.75
P/FCF (TTM)
20.81
Rev YoY
+13.7%
EPS YoY
+39.6%
Gross Margin
+31.8%
Op Margin
+11.4%
Net Debt
$1.32B
Current Ratio
1.16
As of 2026-11-02 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data