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AVA

AvistaB
NYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Favorable regulatory rulings, steady load growth, and positive analyst revisions could re-rate AVA toward the analyst high (51.45). This outcome requires clear regulatory wins or sustained operational improvement and is conditional rather than the base-case path.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.5.
What can break
Execution risk on capital projects
Momentum
39
Value
56
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $41.20 · Bull $51.45 · Bear $36.00Analysis 2026-02-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $38.75
Why
Momentum39 · Δ7d +2.4
Value56 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -3.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk on capital projects
  • • Rising interest rates increasing financing costs
  • • Unfavorable rate-case outcomes, sustained margin pressure, or persistent high interest rates would compress multiples and push the stock toward the analyst low (36.0), particularly if earnings or load weaken materially.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-27

Regulatory/rate-case outcome or material utility filing

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
39
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
+8.4
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
-17.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 39.0 / Value 55.9 / Sentiment 59.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$51.45
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$41.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.16B
Beta
0.27
Shares Out
83.75M
P/E (TTM)
16.3
P/S (TTM)
1.59
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-11.68
Rev YoY
+0.5%
EPS YoY
+143.0%
Gross Margin
+25.0%
Op Margin
+18.8%
Net Debt
$3.3B
Current Ratio
1.10
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data