B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ATOM
AtomeraCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull read on the May 5, 2026 update is that Atomera materially improved its balance sheet, moved GAA work into customer evaluation, and widened its GaN opportunity into RF, giving the company more time and more shots on goal to land a meaningful commercial license. The deterministic prior improved versus the April baseline, so this is not a broken thesis.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Commercial conversion risk remains high because current evaluation, integration-license, and JDA relationships may never advance into R&D, HVM, or royalty-bearing stages. [#10-K-2026-02-24]
Momentum
6
Value
35
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.50 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $4.50Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $10.00
Why
Momentum6 · Δ7d -3.5
Value35 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment77 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Commercial conversion risk remains high because current evaluation, integration-license, and JDA relationships may never advance into R&D, HVM, or royalty-bearing stages. [#10-K-2026-02-24]
- • Even after fab installation, full production qualification can take more than an additional year, which can delay royalties and extend cash burn timelines. [#10-K-2026-02-24]
- • The bear read is that the release still showed only $11K of Q1 revenue, a wider net loss, and no hard commercialization conversion.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Post-earnings balance-sheet improvement is real, but the market is fading the print
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
6
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
-0.6
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 6.1 / Value 34.5 / Sentiment 77.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$211.51M
Beta
1.05
Shares Out
39.02M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.3
P/S (TTM)
1992.57
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-12.23
Rev YoY
+175.0%
EPS YoY
+0.4%
Gross Margin
-566.5%
Op Margin
-10212.2%
Net Debt
-$17.93M
Current Ratio
17.02
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data