B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$129.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
ASTS
AST SpaceMobileANasdaq / Telecommunication Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Successful in-orbit tests, early paying customers, and a visible revenue ramp validate ASTS's in-space cellular-to-handset model and support >50% upside from the market anchor.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Adverse regulatory or spectrum allocation outcomes
Momentum
11
Value
33
Sentiment
100
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $77.76 · Bull $129.60 · Bear $34.56Analysis 2026-03-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $82.33
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d -1.9
Value33 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment100 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adverse regulatory or spectrum allocation outcomes
- • Competition from established satellite operators or terrestrial substitutes
- • Missed commercialization timelines, larger-than-expected dilution, or regulatory setbacks compress valuation sharply, driving multiples materially below current pricing.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-01
Q1 / FY2026 earnings release
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
11
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
-13.2
Value
33
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
100
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+8.9
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 10.5 / Value 33.1 / Sentiment 100.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$77.76
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.56
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$27.61B
Beta
2.68
Shares Out
298.75M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-69.2
P/S (TTM)
1774.90
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-16.32
Rev YoY
+2626.6%
EPS YoY
+88.0%
Gross Margin
-242.8%
Op Margin
-410.3%
Net Debt
-$97.05M
Current Ratio
13.05
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data