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ASTS

AST SpaceMobileA
Nasdaq / Telecommunication Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
ASTS has substantial strategic reach through more than 60 MNO relationships covering over 3 billion subscribers, approximately $1.30 billion of contracted commercial revenue and government awards, 13 satellites in orbit, and production extending through BlueBird 46. Initiating the planned 2026 beta service and advancing BlueBirds 14-16 could materially de-risk the commercial model.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
Director Adriana Cisneros purchased approximately $500,000 of shares at $57, a modest positive alignment signal, but it does not validate operating performance. Other recent reported dispositions were tax-withholding transactions rather than discretionary sales. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-01] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-18]
Momentum
5
Value
33
Sentiment
100
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $66.00 · Bull $85.00 · Bear $35.00Analysis 2026-09-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $79.27
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d -3.0
Value33 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment100 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Director Adriana Cisneros purchased approximately $500,000 of shares at $57, a modest positive alignment signal, but it does not validate operating performance. Other recent reported dispositions were tax-withholding transactions rather than discretionary sales. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-01] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-18]
  • • Launch-provider readiness, weather, regulatory approvals, satellite testing, and manufacturing execution could delay constellation deployment.
  • • Q2 revenue of $31.5 million and non-GAAP loss of $0.44 per share missed the cited consensus figures, operating cash use increased, and post-report estimates reportedly moved lower.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Initiation of beta service by year-end 2026

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.0
Δ21d
-13.8
Value
33
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
100
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+24.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 4.6 / Value 33.3 / Sentiment 100.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$85.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$66.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$15.35B
Beta
2.68
Shares Out
299.79M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-38.3
P/S (TTM)
1774.90
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.04
Rev YoY
+2626.6%
EPS YoY
+88.0%
Gross Margin
-242.8%
Op Margin
-410.3%
Net Debt
-$97.05M
Current Ratio
13.05
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data