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ASTS

AST SpaceMobileA
Nasdaq / Telecommunication Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Successful in-orbit tests, early paying customers, and a visible revenue ramp validate ASTS's in-space cellular-to-handset model and support >50% upside from the market anchor.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.8.
What can break
Adverse regulatory or spectrum allocation outcomes
Momentum
12
Value
33
Sentiment
98
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $77.76 · Bull $129.60 · Bear $34.56Analysis 2026-03-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $82.33
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d -1.7
Value33 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment98 · Δ7d -7.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adverse regulatory or spectrum allocation outcomes
  • • Competition from established satellite operators or terrestrial substitutes
  • • Missed commercialization timelines, larger-than-expected dilution, or regulatory setbacks compress valuation sharply, driving multiples materially below current pricing.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-01

Q1 / FY2026 earnings release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
+3.1
Value
33
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
98
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.8
Δ21d
+4.1
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 12.2 / Value 33.1 / Sentiment 98.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$129.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$77.76
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.56
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$27.61B
Beta
2.68
Shares Out
298.75M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-69.2
P/S (TTM)
1774.90
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-16.32
Rev YoY
+2626.6%
EPS YoY
+88.0%
Gross Margin
-242.8%
Op Margin
-410.3%
Net Debt
-$97.05M
Current Ratio
13.05
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data