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ASTE

Astec IndustriesA
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Materials Solutions demand and backlog could offset Infrastructure weakness if orders convert into profitable shipments. The Q2 release reported Materials Solutions sales growth of 43.0% and a 90-basis-point increase in segment adjusted EBITDA margin.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.1.
What can break
Backlog growth does not ensure timely conversion, and Q2 GAAP operating margin fell to 5.0% from 6.5%. [#8-K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
29
Value
63
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $43.00 · Bull $52.00 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $67.25
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d -2.4
Value63 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment67 · Δ7d -3.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog growth does not ensure timely conversion, and Q2 GAAP operating margin fell to 5.0% from 6.5%. [#8-K-2026-08-05]
  • • FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced to $160–175 million from $170–190 million. [#8-K-2026-08-05]
  • • The FY2026 guidance cut and weak Infrastructure order conversion may signal more than a timing delay.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Q2 sales and backlog growth

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
29
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
+2.3
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
67
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
+0.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 29.0 / Value 62.6 / Sentiment 66.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$874.04M
Beta
1.45
Shares Out
23.03M
P/E (TTM)
22.3
P/S (TTM)
0.77
P/FCF (TTM)
31.59
Rev YoY
+23.6%
EPS YoY
-37.7%
Gross Margin
+26.0%
Op Margin
+5.4%
Net Debt
$288.9M
Current Ratio
2.51
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data