B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ASTE
Astec IndustriesBNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Revenue growth, backlog expansion, strong Materials Solutions orders and positive year-to-date free cash flow support a constructive medium-term setup if backlog converts without further guide cuts.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.3.
What can break
Backlog growth may not convert on schedule if customer orders or project timing deteriorate.
Momentum
9
Value
62
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $48.00 · Bull $56.00 · Bear $37.00Analysis 2026-08-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $67.25
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d +0.0
Value62 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment78 · Δ7d +1.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Backlog growth may not convert on schedule if customer orders or project timing deteriorate.
- • Further macro-driven delays in asphalt-plant shipments could pressure Infrastructure Solutions revenue and margins.
- • The guidance reduction, weak Infrastructure Solutions book-to-bill and shipment timing risk indicate that headline growth may not translate into near-term margin or earnings momentum.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 results showed strong revenue, EBITDA and backlog growth
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
9
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+3.1
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
78
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-3.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 9.0 / Value 62.5 / Sentiment 77.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$37.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$995.85M
Beta
1.45
Shares Out
23.03M
P/E (TTM)
22.3
P/S (TTM)
0.77
P/FCF (TTM)
31.59
Rev YoY
+23.6%
EPS YoY
-37.7%
Gross Margin
+26.0%
Op Margin
+5.4%
Net Debt
$288.9M
Current Ratio
2.51
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data