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ASO

Academy Sports and OutdoorsD
Nasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q1 showed improving traffic, ticket, comparable sales, eCommerce, earnings, and store growth, supporting a recovery thesis. The available median analyst target of $58.67 implies substantial upside from the $43.60 anchor price, though target-count data is unavailable.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
What can break
Analyst target count, revisions, options positioning, and direct-peer valuation evidence are unavailable.
Momentum
45
Value
66
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $46.50 · Bull $58.70 · Bear $37.00Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $59.32
Why
Momentum45 · Δ7d +23.3
Value66 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -27.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -27.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst target count, revisions, options positioning, and direct-peer valuation evidence are unavailable.
  • • Inflationary pressure could weigh on discretionary consumer spending.
  • • The Q2 print has not yet occurred despite the delta packet labeling August 31 as the earnings date; official company IR materials indicate September 9.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-09

Q2 FY2026 earnings release and call

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
45
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+23.3
Δ21d
+27.2
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
44
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-27.4
Δ21d
-53.6
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 45.1 / Value 66.3 / Sentiment 43.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$58.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$46.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$37.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.86B
Beta
1.26
Shares Out
62.02M
P/E (TTM)
10.0
P/S (TTM)
0.61
P/FCF (TTM)
23.25
Rev YoY
+6.7%
EPS YoY
+18.2%
Gross Margin
+34.6%
Op Margin
+8.4%
Net Debt
$1.56B
Current Ratio
1.68
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data