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ASIC

Ategrity Specialty InsuranceB
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print exceeded preliminary expectations, with $0.67 EPS versus the previously cited $0.47 consensus, 23.4% gross written premium growth, and an 85.9% combined ratio. Expense leverage and growth across casualty and property strengthen the case that Ategrity is gaining share while scaling [#SEC-8K-2026-07-10] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.3.
What can break
Competitive and pricing conditions in specialty property may weaken future premium growth or margins.
Momentum
83
Value
53
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $28.50 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $20.50Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.10
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +5.1
Value53 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment64 · Δ7d -1.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Competitive and pricing conditions in specialty property may weaken future premium growth or margins.
  • • Loss-ratio pressure from mix shift toward the brokerage channel could offset expense leverage.
  • • The loss ratio increased to 58.5%, reflecting brokerage-channel mix and lower catastrophe activity in the prior-year comparison.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-29

Q2 2026 earnings reset confirms record growth and underwriting leverage

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
83
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.1
Δ21d
+10.6
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-9.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 83.2 / Value 52.5 / Sentiment 64.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$28.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.15B
Beta
-
Shares Out
47.93M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
14.5
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
7.10
Rev YoY
+45.9%
EPS YoY
+65.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+28.4%
Net Debt
-$28.37M
Current Ratio
0.89
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data