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ASAN

AsanaF
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that ASAN is early in a margin-and-cash-flow rerating: Q1 showed record operating margin, much stronger cash generation, and a fourth straight NRR improvement, while AI Studio, AI Teammates, and StackAI could deepen workflow relevance and improve expansion [#SEC-8K-2026-05-28].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
AI product and StackAI narrative may be ahead of measurable monetization, creating risk that enthusiasm outruns reported customer uptake.
Momentum
83
Value
44
Sentiment
24
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $8.80 · Bull $10.50 · Bear $5.40Analysis 2026-06-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $10.23
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d -7.9
Value44 · Δ7d -0.7
Sentiment24 · Δ7d -17.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI product and StackAI narrative may be ahead of measurable monetization, creating risk that enthusiasm outruns reported customer uptake.
  • • Overall dollar-based net retention was 96%, which is improved but still not yet a strong expansion signal for a premium software multiple [#SEC-8K-2026-05-28].
  • • The bear case is that the company is still growing only about 9%-10%, overall NRR is 96%, and even supportive secondary coverage described the quarter as mixed because billings and full-year guidance framing were less convincing than the profitability improvement, leaving the stock vulnerable if AI adoption does not translate into faster durable growth.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-31

Q1 print improved margins, cash flow, and retention trend

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-7.9
Δ21d
+31.1
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
24
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-17.5
Δ21d
-38.4
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 82.5 / Value 43.8 / Sentiment 23.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$8.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$5.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$2.75B
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
228.97M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-15.0
P/S (TTM)
3.95
P/FCF (TTM)
46.88
Rev YoY
+9.5%
EPS YoY
-64.5%
Gross Margin
+88.5%
Op Margin
-16.8%
Net Debt
-$185.05M
Current Ratio
1.10
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data