B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARWR
ArrowheadBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The thesis now combines an expanding commercial product, pivotal plozasiran efficacy in severe hypertriglyceridemia, approximately $1.6 billion of quarter-end cash and investments, and multiple independently advancing RNAi programs. ARO-DIMER-PA's dual-target single-dose activity offers additional platform validation, while stronger REDEMPLO revenue conversion could shift valuation from pipeline optionality toward a commercial-growth framework [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] [#IR-2026-09-15].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.2.
What can break
ARO-DIMER-PA evidence is interim, single-dose, and biomarker-based; multiple-dose safety, durability, dose selection, and clinical-outcome relevance remain unproven [#IR-2026-09-15].
Momentum
15
Value
41
Sentiment
86
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $78.00 · Bull $105.00 · Bear $45.00Analysis 2026-09-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $107.92
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d +5.4
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment86 · Δ7d -9.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ARO-DIMER-PA evidence is interim, single-dose, and biomarker-based; multiple-dose safety, durability, dose selection, and clinical-outcome relevance remain unproven [#IR-2026-09-15].
- • Fiscal Q3 operating investment was high, including approximately $198 million of R&D expense and $47 million of SG&A expense, while the net loss widened to approximately $194.3 million [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-05].
- • Commercial evidence remains immature: fiscal Q3 REDEMPLO revenue was about $2.4 million despite stronger prescription activity, while the quarterly net loss was approximately $194.3 million and R&D expense approximately $198 million.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-30
REDEMPLO launch must convert prescription growth into meaningful revenue
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
15
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.4
Δ21d
+9.5
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
86
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.2
Δ21d
+1.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 14.9 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 86.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$78.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$8.2B
Beta
1.22
Shares Out
141.25M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5802.0
P/S (TTM)
10.46
P/FCF (TTM)
55.30
Rev YoY
+171.0%
EPS YoY
+7.5%
Gross Margin
+96.1%
Op Margin
-33.8%
Net Debt
-$185.69M
Current Ratio
5.90
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data