B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$102.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARWR
ArrowheadCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive case remains execution-led rather than purely speculative: REDEMPLO launch metrics were strong for an early orphan rollout, ex-U.S. regulatory progress is real, and fresh company data on ARO-INHBE gives Arrowhead another visible pipeline leg beyond triglyceride disease [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07] [#IR-2026-05-27].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.2.
What can break
Biopharma cash burn remains meaningful, so weak commercialization or delayed milestones could refocus investors on balance-sheet duration.
Momentum
41
Value
41
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $84.00 · Bull $102.00 · Bear $62.00Analysis 2026-06-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $110.91
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d -8.2
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +3.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Biopharma cash burn remains meaningful, so weak commercialization or delayed milestones could refocus investors on balance-sheet duration.
- • European timing risk remains if the expected Q2 2026 European Commission authorization slips.
- • The cautious case is that Arrowhead still needs to prove that prescriptions convert into durable paid demand, gross-to-net remains hard to handicap, and much of the longer-duration upside still depends on clinical and regulatory follow-through rather than established product cash generation.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
European Commission decision on REDEMPLO is a near-dated ex-U.S. validation point
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
41
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-8.2
Δ21d
-42.0
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-7.5
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
+6.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 41.0 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 65.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$12.53B
Beta
1.22
Shares Out
141.25M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8870.0
P/S (TTM)
10.46
P/FCF (TTM)
55.30
Rev YoY
+171.0%
EPS YoY
+7.5%
Gross Margin
+96.1%
Op Margin
-33.8%
Net Debt
-$185.69M
Current Ratio
5.90
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data