RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

ARR

ARMOUR Residential REITB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
At the $12.69 adjusted-close anchor, ARR trades about 13% below its $14.55 September 30 book value. A stabilization of mortgage spreads and book value could narrow that discount, while Q3 distributable earnings nearly matched the common dividend.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.8.
What can break
Common-share issuance raised $205.7 million in Q3; capital deployment must offset dilution in per-share book value and earnings. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
Momentum
22
Value
64
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.40 · Bull $15.10 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.38
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d -4.4
Value64 · Δ7d -9.8
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +3.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Common-share issuance raised $205.7 million in Q3; capital deployment must offset dilution in per-share book value and earnings. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
  • • Further agency-MBS spread widening or rate volatility could erode book value despite hedging. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
  • • The 17% quarter-on-quarter book-value decline, −$2.26 GAAP EPS and higher leverage outweigh the near-covered dividend.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-23

Q3 book-value loss and post-earnings reassessment

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
22
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.4
Δ21d
-8.9
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.8
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
-36.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 22.1 / Value 63.8 / Sentiment 53.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$15.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$12.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.82B
Beta
1.44
Shares Out
141.55M
P/E (TTM)
386.2
P/S (TTM)
2.85
P/FCF (TTM)
30.73
Rev YoY
+8.4%
EPS YoY
-191.5%
Gross Margin
+95.5%
Op Margin
+114.4%
Net Debt
$17.65B
Current Ratio
1.12
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data