RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

ARR

ARMOUR Residential REITC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
ARR trades below Q2 book value, while Q2 economic return recovered to 4.8%, book value rose modestly, and distributable earnings covered the dividend. If agency-MBS spreads and funding conditions remain stable, the discount to book could narrow.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.4.
What can break
46.8% of net repurchase agreements were with ARMOUR affiliate BUCKLER Securities LLC, creating funding-concentration risk.
Momentum
32
Value
64
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $17.25 · Bull $19.25 · Bear $13.75Analysis 2026-07-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.38
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d +3.2
Value64 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +5.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 46.8% of net repurchase agreements were with ARMOUR affiliate BUCKLER Securities LLC, creating funding-concentration risk.
  • • Agency-MBS spread widening, rate volatility, or higher funding costs could pressure book value and distributable earnings.
  • • The improvement is exposed to repo funding, rates, and agency-MBS spread volatility.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-22

Q2 earnings materially improved book value and economic return

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
32
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
-4.9
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-9.7
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.4
Δ21d
+3.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 31.7 / Value 63.7 / Sentiment 64.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$19.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$17.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$13.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.33B
Beta
1.44
Shares Out
141.55M
P/E (TTM)
386.2
P/S (TTM)
2.85
P/FCF (TTM)
30.73
Rev YoY
+8.4%
EPS YoY
-191.5%
Gross Margin
+95.5%
Op Margin
+114.4%
Net Debt
$17.65B
Current Ratio
1.12
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data