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ARQQ

Arqit QuantumD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The best pro-ARQQ read is that H1 FY2026 finally showed measurable contract conversion, broader partner activity, and a potentially more saleable Encryption Intelligence entry point, giving the story a clearer commercial wedge than in prior periods [#PR-2026-05-21].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Cash burn remains meaningful relative to revenue scale; Arqit reported only $623,000 of H1 FY2026 revenue while operating costs averaged $2.6 million per month excluding specified legal expenses [#PR-2026-05-21].
Momentum
53
Value
35
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $21.00 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-07-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $60.00
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d +8.0
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -15.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -15.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cash burn remains meaningful relative to revenue scale; Arqit reported only $623,000 of H1 FY2026 revenue while operating costs averaged $2.6 million per month excluding specified legal expenses [#PR-2026-05-21].
  • • Funding risk and dilution remain live because the company is still trying to scale commercialization from a small revenue base.
  • • The bear read is that revenue is still immaterial versus cost structure, visibility is low, and the company remains dependent on capital markets while it tries to prove repeatable demand.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-31

H1 FY2026 results confirmed a small but real commercialization step-up

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.0
Δ21d
-35.5
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.9
Δ21d
-1.1
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 53.4 / Value 35.1 / Sentiment 57.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$423.75M
Beta
2.40
Shares Out
17.4M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.6
P/S (TTM)
823.35
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.37
Rev YoY
+166.1%
EPS YoY
+43.7%
Gross Margin
+9.3%
Op Margin
-4855.2%
Net Debt
-$36.26M
Current Ratio
4.88
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data