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AROW

Arrow FinancialC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The strongest supported bull point is still the Adirondack acquisition math: management presented an end-Q2 2026 closing target and estimated about 18% 2027 EPS accretion, while January results showed strong standalone 2025 profitability and margin momentum.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
What can break
If the merger accretion case slips, the stock has limited valuation support given the packet median target sits below the current anchor price.
Momentum
39
Value
53
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.50 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.50
Why
Momentum39 · Δ7d +6.2
Value53 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • If the merger accretion case slips, the stock has limited valuation support given the packet median target sits below the current anchor price.
  • • Low analyst coverage and thin revision visibility increase the risk that the stock trades on sparse signals rather than broad fundamental confirmation.
  • • This remains a low-coverage, low-visibility name.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-08

Missing company-source Q1 follow-up keeps the stock in monitoring mode

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
39
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.2
Δ21d
-0.4
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+1.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 38.6 / Value 53.4 / Sentiment 55.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$34.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$719.83M
Beta
0.80
Shares Out
18.52M
P/E (TTM)
15.4
P/S (TTM)
3.38
P/FCF (TTM)
31.65
Rev YoY
+4.5%
EPS YoY
+1.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+25.9%
Net Debt
$4.45M
Current Ratio
0.11
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data