B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARM
ARMDNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-print bull view is that Arm is turning record licensing and royalty momentum into a larger AI infrastructure opportunity. Company materials support the core operating claim: Q4 revenue reached $1.49B, data-center royalties more than doubled year over year, and disclosed AGI CPU demand exceeded $2B across fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
AGI CPU revenue conversion is still an execution question, and market coverage flagged supply availability as a reason investors did not fully reward the beat.
Momentum
69
Value
46
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $180.00 · Bull $245.00 · Bear $140.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $298.26
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d +9.3
Value46 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment33 · Δ7d -5.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AGI CPU revenue conversion is still an execution question, and market coverage flagged supply availability as a reason investors did not fully reward the beat.
- • Arm's Form 6-K risk language highlights dependence on semiconductor end-market demand, customer and customer-customer demand, compatibility with customer manufacturing and design processes, and the ability to forecast demand for new products [#6K-2026-05-06].
- • The bear view is that the stock already discounts a large silicon expansion while evidence of revenue conversion remains early.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-15
Q4 FYE26 beat and Q1 guide support near-term estimate stability
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+9.3
Δ21d
+38.3
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
33
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.9
Δ21d
-0.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 68.7 / Value 46.2 / Sentiment 33.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$289.89B
Beta
-
Shares Out
1.07B
P/E (TTM)
149.1
P/S (TTM)
27.92
P/FCF (TTM)
108.25
Rev YoY
+22.4%
EPS YoY
+105.2%
Gross Margin
+93.9%
Op Margin
+17.3%
Net Debt
-$3.11B
Current Ratio
5.25
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data