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ARIS

Aris MiningB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong H1 cash generation, production on track for 300,000–350,000 ounces, and Marmato first gold scheduled for Q4 2026 provide credible operating upside. The displayed median analyst target is $27.44, but the analyst count is unavailable, so it is not a robust consensus signal.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Cash fell from $472 million to $426 million after tax payments and substantial capital investment.
Momentum
99
Value
64
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $19.00 · Bull $25.00 · Bear $13.00Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $28.72
Why
Momentum99 · Δ7d +0.4
Value64 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -1.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cash fell from $472 million to $426 million after tax payments and substantial capital investment.
  • • Marmato capital requirements increased to approximately $238 million, creating commissioning, funding, and execution risk.
  • • The Q2 print lacks a verified surprise signal, cash declined to $426 million after taxes and capital spending, Marmato costs increased, and Segovia's production ramp is back-end loaded.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-31

Q2 results support profitability but leave a mixed near-term read

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
99
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+28.5
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+5.0
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-14.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 98.8 / Value 64.1 / Sentiment 56.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.74B
Beta
1.60
Shares Out
206.4M
P/E (TTM)
67.9
P/S (TTM)
4.30
P/FCF (TTM)
26.15
Rev YoY
+62.3%
EPS YoY
-585.7%
Gross Margin
+51.2%
Op Margin
+46.3%
Net Debt
$133.64M
Current Ratio
1.91
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data