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ARIS

Aris MiningB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Successful Marmato first gold, a stronger Segovia ramp, and recovery toward the 2026 production floor could improve cash-generation visibility. These outcomes are not yet demonstrated in final Q3 results.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.
What can break
Gold-price sensitivity, capital spending, and Colombian operating and permitting risks remain material.
Momentum
40
Value
65
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.00 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.27
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d -19.6
Value65 · Δ7d +1.0
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -8.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Gold-price sensitivity, capital spending, and Colombian operating and permitting risks remain material.
  • • Marmato CIP commissioning and 2027 ramp-up may slip; Q3 Marmato production was reduced by planned flotation-plant downtime. [#PR-2026-10-07]
  • • Q3 production declined sequentially and management shifted its outlook toward the bottom of guidance.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-04

Q3 production lowers the 2026 guidance test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
40
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.6
Δ21d
-42.6
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.9
Δ21d
-16.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 39.6 / Value 64.7 / Sentiment 55.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$3.21B
Beta
1.60
Shares Out
206.4M
P/E (TTM)
67.9
P/S (TTM)
4.30
P/FCF (TTM)
26.15
Rev YoY
+62.3%
EPS YoY
-585.7%
Gross Margin
+51.2%
Op Margin
+46.3%
Net Debt
$133.64M
Current Ratio
1.91
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data