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ARES

Ares ManagementC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The strongest primary-source bull argument is that Ares is pairing record fundraising with rising fee-paying AUM and management-fee growth: Q1 included $30 billion of fundraising, 19% fee-paying AUM growth, 25% management-fee growth, and nearly $160 billion of dry powder, while the June Pathfinder release adds another visible proof point that investor demand remains strong [#SEC-8K-2026-05-01] [#PR-2026-06-10].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Execution risk that strong fundraising does not translate into comparable revenue, realizations, or fee-related earnings growth in upcoming quarters.
Momentum
22
Value
46
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $140.00 · Bull $155.00 · Bear $112.00Analysis 2026-06-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
30 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-29 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $145.45
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d +5.9
Value46 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -5.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Earnings surprise screen
30Non-qualifying2026-10-29 bmo
View setup

Ares had positive multi-session price momentum and a plausible fundraising/AUM catalyst, but the checked pre-event estimate evidence showed a 2.1% 30-day EPS consensus reduction and no demonstrated revenue upside revision; the available tape also did not establish the required close-location or volume triggers.

Screen as of 2026-10-29. Window 2026-10-29 to 2026-11-04.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 30 / non-qualifying.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk that strong fundraising does not translate into comparable revenue, realizations, or fee-related earnings growth in upcoming quarters.
  • • High market sensitivity to alternative-asset-manager sentiment means any slowdown in fundraising, fee-paying AUM growth, or operating-margin expansion could pressure the multiple.
  • • The counterpoint is that even with strong fundraising, secondary earnings context in the packet says Q1 revenue and EPS missed expectations, so the stock still needs cleaner conversion of fundraising into reported revenue, realizations, and margins; if deployment or exits slow, valuation can compress despite AUM growth.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Pathfinder III close extends alternative-credit fundraising momentum

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
22
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.9
Δ21d
+3.9
Value
46
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.0
Δ21d
-11.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 22.2 / Value 46.0 / Sentiment 65.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$40.36B
Beta
1.54
Shares Out
227.45M
P/E (TTM)
72.0
P/S (TTM)
10.50
P/FCF (TTM)
19.70
Rev YoY
+12.6%
EPS YoY
+7.1%
Gross Margin
+78.9%
Op Margin
+30.4%
Net Debt
$12.87B
Current Ratio
0.53
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data