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AR

Antero ResourcesB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
If the delayed/impending Q1 2026 release confirms the planned production step-up, HG integration benefits, and visible deleveraging, AR has room to move toward the mid-40s where the packet's mean/median target sits.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
What can break
AR remains highly exposed to natural gas and NGL pricing, so realized-price slippage can offset volume growth and weaken free-cash-flow delivery.
Momentum
54
Value
49
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $43.00 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $32.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $50.05
Why
Momentum54 · Δ7d -9.0
Value49 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AR remains highly exposed to natural gas and NGL pricing, so realized-price slippage can offset volume growth and weaken free-cash-flow delivery.
  • • As of 2026-04-29, the actual Q1 2026 earnings release and 8-K were not yet confirmed in the checked company/SEC sources, leaving the immediate post-earnings evidence gap unresolved.
  • • This is still a monitoring-style earnings run because, as of April 29, 2026, the actual Q1 release, surprise versus consensus, and post-print analyst revisions were not confirmed in the checked sources.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-29

Q1 2026 earnings release and April 30 call are the immediate missing catalyst

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
54
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-9.0
Δ21d
-1.6
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+2.0
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-5.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 53.7 / Value 48.6 / Sentiment 72.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.19B
Beta
0.56
Shares Out
307.44M
P/E (TTM)
19.0
P/S (TTM)
2.02
P/FCF (TTM)
12.80
Rev YoY
+12.5%
EPS YoY
+79.4%
Gross Margin
+25.8%
Op Margin
+21.8%
Net Debt
$3.32B
Current Ratio
0.40
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data