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AR

Antero ResourcesC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
If the delayed/impending Q1 2026 release confirms the planned production step-up, HG integration benefits, and visible deleveraging, AR has room to move toward the mid-40s where the packet's mean/median target sits.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
AR remains highly exposed to natural gas and NGL pricing, so realized-price slippage can offset volume growth and weaken free-cash-flow delivery.
Momentum
70
Value
47
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $43.00 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $32.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $50.14
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d +36.9
Value47 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -4.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AR remains highly exposed to natural gas and NGL pricing, so realized-price slippage can offset volume growth and weaken free-cash-flow delivery.
  • • As of 2026-04-29, the actual Q1 2026 earnings release and 8-K were not yet confirmed in the checked company/SEC sources, leaving the immediate post-earnings evidence gap unresolved.
  • • This is still a monitoring-style earnings run because, as of April 29, 2026, the actual Q1 release, surprise versus consensus, and post-print analyst revisions were not confirmed in the checked sources.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

Q1 2026 earnings release and April 30 call are the immediate missing catalyst

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
70
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+36.9
Δ21d
+56.9
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-1.5
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.4
Δ21d
-30.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 69.8 / Value 47.5 / Sentiment 61.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$12.35B
Beta
0.56
Shares Out
307.44M
P/E (TTM)
19.0
P/S (TTM)
2.02
P/FCF (TTM)
12.80
Rev YoY
+12.5%
EPS YoY
+79.4%
Gross Margin
+25.8%
Op Margin
+21.8%
Net Debt
$3.32B
Current Ratio
0.40
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data