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APLD

Applied DigitalD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Large take-or-pay hyperscaler commitments, approximately 810 MW across the three newly disclosed leases, strong reported revenue growth, and continued campus commissioning could support a substantial re-rating if execution converts backlog into recurring operating cash flow. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -36.4.
What can break
Construction, financing, commissioning, and timing risk for 2027-2028 campuses.
Momentum
7
Value
35
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.00 · Bull $39.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $73.96
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d +1.0
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment67 · Δ7d -36.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -36.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Construction, financing, commissioning, and timing risk for 2027-2028 campuses.
  • • Customer concentration risk from multiple leases with the same hyperscaler.
  • • The latest quarter remained GAAP-loss making, with significant financing and construction requirements ahead.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-02

Delta Forge 2 reaches initial operations

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
7
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
-1.0
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-4.6
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-36.4
Δ21d
-30.0
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 6.8 / Value 35.1 / Sentiment 66.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$9.09B
Beta
7.27
Shares Out
291.47M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-34.3
P/S (TTM)
46.66
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.13
Rev YoY
+406.6%
EPS YoY
+63.7%
Gross Margin
+22.4%
Op Margin
-29.7%
Net Debt
$1.13B
Current Ratio
4.01
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data