B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$104.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
APH
AmphenolANYSE / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record Q2 sales, 30% organic growth, strong orders and higher expected CommScope contribution support continued growth if IT datacom demand converts into shipments [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
CommScope integration or weaker demand could prevent the higher projected acquisition contribution from materializing [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Momentum
72
Value
55
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $86.00 · Bull $104.00 · Bear $63.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
57 · Disqualified
Next 2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-27 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $104.17
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d +3.4
Value55 · Δ7d +1.1
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +5.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
57Disqualified2026-10-28 bmo
APH had upward EPS revisions, BofA’s above-consensus revenue/EPS view, strong AI-connectivity demand, and a long beat streak, but the verified pre-event tape shows a steep recent pullback and no verified accumulation-volume confirmation; date confirmation from available public checks was not conclusive.
Screen as of 2026-10-27. Window 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-02.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 57 / disqualified.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CommScope integration or weaker demand could prevent the higher projected acquisition contribution from materializing [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
- • Pre-split earnings and insider-transaction prices are not directly comparable with the September 24 split-adjusted stock anchor [#8-K-2026-09-04].
- • Q2 adjusted operating margin of 29.8% included an $80 million tariff-recovery benefit.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28 · BMO
Q3 results test the raised operating run rate
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
72
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-0.6
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.9
Δ21d
+9.5
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 72.3 / Value 55.0 / Sentiment 63.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$86.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$182.7B
Beta
1.20
Shares Out
2.47B
P/E (TTM)
46.6
P/S (TTM)
8.16
P/FCF (TTM)
62.09
Rev YoY
+55.0%
EPS YoY
+60.0%
Gross Margin
+39.0%
Op Margin
+28.1%
Net Debt
$4.63B
Current Ratio
1.89
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data