B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$104.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
APH
AmphenolANYSE / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record Q2 sales, 30% organic growth, strong orders and higher expected CommScope contribution support continued growth if IT datacom demand converts into shipments [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
CommScope integration or weaker demand could prevent the higher projected acquisition contribution from materializing [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Momentum
73
Value
55
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $86.00 · Bull $104.00 · Bear $63.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
35 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-26 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $104.17
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d +0.3
Value55 · Δ7d +1.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +8.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
35Non-qualifying2026-10-28 bmo
Amphenol has strong recent growth and a credible AI/data-center demand catalyst, but no positive EPS revision or whisper evidence was verified and the stock fell sharply over the recent five-session period. Friday's close location was constructive, but available volume did not establish accumulation above 1.5x normal.
Screen as of 2026-10-26. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 35 / non-qualifying.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CommScope integration or weaker demand could prevent the higher projected acquisition contribution from materializing [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
- • Pre-split earnings and insider-transaction prices are not directly comparable with the September 24 split-adjusted stock anchor [#8-K-2026-09-04].
- • Q2 adjusted operating margin of 29.8% included an $80 million tariff-recovery benefit.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28 · BMO
Q3 results test the raised operating run rate
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
73
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-0.9
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.5
Δ21d
+12.1
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 72.9 / Value 55.0 / Sentiment 65.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$86.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$182.7B
Beta
1.20
Shares Out
2.47B
P/E (TTM)
46.6
P/S (TTM)
8.16
P/FCF (TTM)
62.09
Rev YoY
+55.0%
EPS YoY
+60.0%
Gross Margin
+39.0%
Op Margin
+28.1%
Net Debt
$4.63B
Current Ratio
1.89
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data