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APG

APi GroupA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
APi combines double-digit organic growth, record backlog above $5 billion, strong Specialty Services momentum, modest margin expansion, and a raised FY2026 outlook. The $39.69 anchor remains below the reported median analyst target of $52.36, although the target count is unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Analyst estimate revisions, target changes, options data, short interest, employee sentiment, and post-release price reaction are unavailable.
Momentum
51
Value
52
Sentiment
86
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $45.00 · Bull $53.00 · Bear $34.00Analysis 2026-08-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $52.36
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d -7.2
Value52 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment86 · Δ7d +3.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst estimate revisions, target changes, options data, short interest, employee sentiment, and post-release price reaction are unavailable.
  • • Foreign exchange and higher interest expense remain headwinds, including the incremental cost of $500 million of senior notes.
  • • The thesis depends on continued backlog conversion and execution.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Near-term insider-sale overhang

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
51
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.2
Δ21d
+11.7
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
86
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
-4.4
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 51.3 / Value 51.8 / Sentiment 85.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$53.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$19.51B
Beta
1.70
Shares Out
436.16M
P/E (TTM)
110.8
P/S (TTM)
2.27
P/FCF (TTM)
30.42
Rev YoY
+13.3%
EPS YoY
+26.3%
Gross Margin
+28.5%
Op Margin
+6.4%
Net Debt
$2.16B
Current Ratio
1.39
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data