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APG

APi GroupB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Raised FY2026 guidance, record backlog above $5 billion, 10.1% Q2 organic growth and strong Specialty Services demand support a positive medium-term setup. Backlog conversion and service-led margin improvement could sustain growth beyond the current year.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Foreign-exchange headwinds and expected full-year interest expense of approximately $150 million could dilute operating gains. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-01]
Momentum
78
Value
51
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $43.00 · Bull $50.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-09-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $52.45
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d -6.4
Value51 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +2.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Foreign-exchange headwinds and expected full-year interest expense of approximately $150 million could dilute operating gains. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-01]
  • • International Safety was flat in Q2 and remains an execution area despite improving later in the period. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-01]
  • • The favorable outlook already reflects strong first-half execution.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Execution against raised FY2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
78
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.4
Δ21d
+13.1
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
-4.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 77.8 / Value 50.5 / Sentiment 60.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$17.21B
Beta
1.70
Shares Out
436.16M
P/E (TTM)
110.8
P/S (TTM)
2.27
P/FCF (TTM)
30.42
Rev YoY
+13.3%
EPS YoY
+26.3%
Gross Margin
+28.5%
Op Margin
+6.4%
Net Debt
$2.16B
Current Ratio
1.39
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data