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AOS

A O SmithA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The replacement-oriented business, strong boiler growth, pricing benefits, Leonard Valve contribution, cash-flow improvement, and buybacks provide support for a gradual recovery if residential demand and China stabilize.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
What can break
A guidance miss or negative estimate revisions could compress the valuation multiple.
Momentum
53
Value
66
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $66.00 · Bull $75.00 · Bear $49.00Analysis 2026-09-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $69.70
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d -4.1
Value66 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment78 · Δ7d +5.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A guidance miss or negative estimate revisions could compress the valuation multiple.
  • • China weakness may continue to pressure Rest-of-World sales.
  • • Near-term earnings risk remains elevated because residential water-heater volumes are soft, China remains weak, reported North America margins compressed, and consolidated sales and adjusted EPS declined year over year.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-30

Q2 2026 results produced mixed but resilient execution

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
-0.2
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
78
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.0
Δ21d
+9.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 52.9 / Value 66.3 / Sentiment 77.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$66.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.34B
Beta
1.35
Shares Out
135.91M
P/E (TTM)
18.5
P/S (TTM)
2.49
P/FCF (TTM)
25.29
Rev YoY
-0.7%
EPS YoY
-15.2%
Gross Margin
+38.5%
Op Margin
+18.1%
Net Debt
$9.7M
Current Ratio
1.59
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data