B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$69.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AOS
A O SmithBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Boiler growth, pricing, acquisition contribution, stronger cash flow and increased repurchases could support recovery despite soft headline growth [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Analyst revision, options-skew, short-interest and social-sentiment data are unavailable.
Momentum
75
Value
64
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $58.00 · Bull $69.70 · Bear $47.00Analysis 2026-09-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $65.56
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d -5.5
Value64 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -3.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst revision, options-skew, short-interest and social-sentiment data are unavailable.
- • Continued weakness in China's consumer-appliance market could prolong the Rest-of-World contraction [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
- • Residential water-heater softness, persistent China weakness and North American margin pressure could outweigh the operating levers; Q2 North America reported margin fell to 21.6% from 25.4%, partly reflecting water-treatment restructuring and impairment charges [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · BMO
Q2 showed resilient operating levers but weaker earnings
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
75
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-5.5
Δ21d
+25.9
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-2.4
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
-15.2
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 75.3 / Value 63.9 / Sentiment 56.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$8.43B
Beta
1.35
Shares Out
135.91M
P/E (TTM)
18.5
P/S (TTM)
2.49
P/FCF (TTM)
25.29
Rev YoY
-0.7%
EPS YoY
-15.2%
Gross Margin
+38.5%
Op Margin
+18.1%
Net Debt
$9.7M
Current Ratio
1.59
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data