B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.88
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage REITBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 delivered positive core-income growth, distributable earnings above the quarterly dividend, continued loan purchases, and value-accretive capital actions. The stock trades below reported Q2 GAAP book value of $10.13 and economic book value of $12.24, leaving room for re-rating if securitization and deleveraging execution persist.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Funding capacity and warehouse financing terms may deteriorate in stressed markets.
Momentum
53
Value
64
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.25 · Bull $10.88 · Bear $7.25Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $10.55
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d -9.6
Value64 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Funding capacity and warehouse financing terms may deteriorate in stressed markets.
- • Interest-rate volatility, credit spreads, defaults, collateral values, and securitization execution can materially affect results.
- • The earnings follow-up lacks a verified analyst revision, target-change, or consensus-surprise signal.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 earnings showed resilient core income and maintained dividend
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.6
Δ21d
-15.3
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 53.4 / Value 63.7 / Sentiment 71.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$207.54M
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
23.21M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
5.39
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-25.98
Rev YoY
+31.5%
EPS YoY
+341.8%
Gross Margin
+91.2%
Op Margin
+87.9%
Net Debt
$2.23B
Current Ratio
0.10
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data