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AOMR

Angel Oak Mortgage REITB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Funding-spread relief, loan reinvestment and securitization capacity could sustain distributable earnings and narrow the discount to reported book value. Q2 net interest income rose 8% year over year to $10.7 million.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
Distributable earnings may not continue covering the $0.32 quarterly dividend.
Momentum
32
Value
64
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.20 · Bull $10.00 · Bear $5.80Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $10.35
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d -1.8
Value64 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -12.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Distributable earnings may not continue covering the $0.32 quarterly dividend.
  • • Mortgage valuation losses could further reduce GAAP book value; Q2 GAAP book value fell 1.7% sequentially.
  • • Q2 GAAP book value declined despite higher net interest income, and $0.37 of distributable earnings provided only modest coverage of the $0.32 dividend.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-31

Warehouse financing extension and lower minimum spread

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
32
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.5
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 32.2 / Value 63.7 / Sentiment 61.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$171.09M
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
23.21M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
5.39
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-21.42
Rev YoY
+31.5%
EPS YoY
+341.8%
Gross Margin
+91.2%
Op Margin
+87.9%
Net Debt
$2.23B
Current Ratio
0.10
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data