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AMTX

AemetisD
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
A favorable August earnings update, continued RNG and 45Z monetization, successful Keyes MVR completion, and resolution of the ABGL financing issue could validate the operating-improvement thesis and support recovery from the $1.52 anchor price.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
ABGL preferred-unit redemption or replacement financing may fail or become more costly by August 31, 2026 [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
94
Value
33
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.35 · Bull $2.50 · Bear $0.60Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.67
Why
Momentum94 · Δ7d -
Value33 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • ABGL preferred-unit redemption or replacement financing may fail or become more costly by August 31, 2026 [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
  • • Keyes MVR construction and commissioning may not produce the expected cash-flow improvement [#IR-2026-05-07].
  • • The official company schedule indicates that Q2 results were not yet available as of August 4, so there is no confirmed earnings surprise, guidance revision, analyst revision, or market-reaction signal.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 2026 earnings review is scheduled for August 6

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
94
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
33
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
45
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 94.5 / Value 32.7 / Sentiment 45.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$2.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.35
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$0.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$129.91M
Beta
2.65
Shares Out
72.17M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.4
P/S (TTM)
0.52
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.09
Rev YoY
+20.0%
EPS YoY
-67.4%
Gross Margin
+10.4%
Op Margin
-5.0%
Net Debt
$509.19M
Current Ratio
0.08
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data