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AMTD

AMTD IDEA GroupF
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
AMTD IDEA reported FY2025 revenue of $101.2 million, up 25.8%, and net income of $67.3 million, up 25.5%. Further repurchases, a definitive subsidiary-share distribution, or demonstrated hospitality earnings could improve investor confidence.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
What can break
No board approval, terms or timetable is assured for the proposed subsidiary-share distribution. [#IR-2026-04-08] Company announcement.
Momentum
66
Value
46
Sentiment
21
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.65 · Bull $0.95 · Bear $0.42Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum66 · Δ7d -
Value46 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment21 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • No board approval, terms or timetable is assured for the proposed subsidiary-share distribution. [#IR-2026-04-08] Company announcement.
  • • No recent independent analyst targets, revisions or trusted-news reaction data were supplied; peer comparisons are loose.
  • • The proposed distribution is explicitly uncertain, and the hotel revenue alert does not quantify AMTD IDEA-specific profit or cash-flow benefits.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Decision on proposed subsidiary-share distribution

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
66
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
46
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
21
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 66.3 / Value 46.4 / Sentiment 20.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$0.95
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$0.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.42
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$1.5B
Beta
0.71
Shares Out
755.84K
P/E (TTM)
1.4
P/S (TTM)
3.14
P/FCF (TTM)
32.95
Rev YoY
-49.9%
EPS YoY
-85.4%
Gross Margin
+27.8%
Op Margin
+81.0%
Net Debt
$445.35M
Current Ratio
8.83
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data