B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AMRZ
AmrizeANYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-print bull case is based on strong volume growth, mega-project demand, aggregates pricing, acquisitions, and ASPIRE savings. The revenue-guide increase suggests demand remains healthy, while management expects roofing price-cost performance to improve in the second half.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Building Envelope Adjusted EBITDA declined 5.2% year over year and margin fell 350 basis points.
Momentum
9
Value
59
Sentiment
81
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $51.00 · Bull $60.00 · Bear $42.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $56.18
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d -1.3
Value59 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment81 · Δ7d +10.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Building Envelope Adjusted EBITDA declined 5.2% year over year and margin fell 350 basis points.
- • Demand remains exposed to construction cyclicality, weather, customer conditions, and execution of acquisitions and ASPIRE savings.
- • The market appears to have focused on the lower EBITDA outlook rather than the revenue growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 results showed strong demand but a mixed guidance reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
9
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-6.4
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.4
Sentiment
81
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.2
Δ21d
+12.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 9.4 / Value 58.9 / Sentiment 81.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$25.31B
Beta
-
Shares Out
553.54M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
21.3
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
24.86
Rev YoY
+8.6%
EPS YoY
+14.5%
Gross Margin
+25.0%
Op Margin
+15.6%
Net Debt
$4.42B
Current Ratio
1.10
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data