B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
+12.4% vs current
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical ResourcesDNYSE / Materials
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment AIMost likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$204.00
-6.4% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
-15.1% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-01-28
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+20.1
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+20.1
Positive
Pulse
+16.6
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+43.0
Score
AI commentary
Market sentiment is mixed-to-neutral: recent aggregator snapshots show a consensus near 204-205 but with dispersion up to 245 and down to 185, indicating analyst caution [#SERP-3] [#SERP-2]. Short-term momentum is sensitive to earnings and met-coal realizations, while longer-term sentiment hinges on global steel demand and capital allocation clarity.
RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2026-01-28
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-04-28catalystFY2025 / Q1 2026 earnings and guidanceHigh impact
Quarterly and FY2025 results plus guidance will drive near-term re-rating; previews note AMR will report 2025 figures and estimates are closely watched by analysts [#SERP-4]. Market reaction likely to hinge on met-coal realizations and cash generation [#SERP-2].
2026-12-31eventPermitting / capital allocation outcome (expansion, buyback or special distribution)High impact
Decisions on mine permits or material capital-allocation moves (share repurchases or special distributions) would be stock-moving; timing is uncertain so a conservative year-end window is assumed for planning [#SERP-2].
2027-01-28catalystCyclical rebound in metallurgical coal demand (China/steel cycle)High impact
A durable improvement in Chinese steel output or stimulus could materially lift met-coal prices and AMR margins; consensus and market commentary highlight cyclical sensitivity of AMR to steel demand [#SERP-1] [#SERP-9].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-01-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology