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AMR

Alpha Metallurgical ResourcesC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes a sustained recovery in metallurgical coal realizations, leading to stronger EBITDA and continued shareholder returns (buybacks/special distributions), supporting a move toward the analyst high of 245.00 and above sector multiples.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.4.
What can break
Downward pressure on met-coal pricing from global oversupply
Momentum
99
Value
44
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $204.00 · Bull $245.00 · Bear $185.00Analysis 2026-01-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $178.75
Why
Momentum99 · Δ7d +1.5
Value44 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +5.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Downward pressure on met-coal pricing from global oversupply
  • • Prolonged weakness in Chinese steel demand
  • • Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected Chinese steel demand or faster substitution/decline in met-coal pricing, pressuring cash flow and causing multiple compression toward analyst lows near 182-185.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-28

FY2025 / Q1 2026 earnings and guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
99
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
+72.2
Value
44
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-8.0
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.4
Δ21d
-20.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 98.9 / Value 43.9 / Sentiment 58.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$204.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.14B
Beta
0.78
Shares Out
12.68M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-35.6
P/S (TTM)
1.17
P/FCF (TTM)
63.41
Rev YoY
-10.4%
EPS YoY
+154.0%
Gross Margin
+0.9%
Op Margin
-2.2%
Net Debt
-$396.8M
Current Ratio
3.41
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data