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AMH

American Homes 4 RentC
NYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that AMH showed resilient single-family rental demand, positive April leasing momentum, expense control, unchanged full-year guidance, and opportunistic buybacks below the current share price; the packet median target of $35.225 implies about 8.7% upside from the $32.42 anchor.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
As of March 31, 2026, AMH had $5.2B of debt outstanding and $390.0M drawn on its revolver; liquidity is adequate, but the capital structure still leaves the story exposed to financing conditions and execution on asset recycling/development pacing [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
55
Value
58
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $35.20 · Bull $37.00 · Bear $29.50Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $37.20
Why
Momentum55 · Δ7d -12.4
Value58 · Δ7d -
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +10.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • As of March 31, 2026, AMH had $5.2B of debt outstanding and $390.0M drawn on its revolver; liquidity is adequate, but the capital structure still leaves the story exposed to financing conditions and execution on asset recycling/development pacing [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
  • • Full-year 2026 guidance was unchanged after the quarter, which limits evidence of a material earnings inflection and raises the risk that the stock stays range-bound if Q2 does not show a clearer acceleration [#8-K-2026-05-06].
  • • The bear case is that guidance was only reaffirmed, not raised, same-home occupied days were still down year over year in Q1, Q1 new-lease spreads were negative before only modestly turning positive in April, T+3 evidence for broad analyst target upgrades or estimate revisions was not available, and the packet peer set lacks enough direct single-family rental comparators, so the memo remains a tentative monitoring view.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-06

Q1 earnings kept full-year guidance intact while April leasing improved

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
55
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-12.4
Δ21d
-7.5
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.8
Δ21d
+7.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 55.2 / Value 57.7 / Sentiment 55.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
22%
Probability
Target price
$37.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
53%
Probability
Target price
$35.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$29.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$12.1B
Beta
0.80
Shares Out
359.82M
P/E (TTM)
26.8
P/S (TTM)
6.39
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
40.16
Rev YoY
+2.8%
EPS YoY
+10.7%
Gross Margin
+31.2%
Op Margin
+24.8%
Net Debt
$4.88B
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data