B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$425.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
AMGN
AmgenDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull: successful late-stage readouts, stable biologics demand, and continued buybacks drive EPS and multiple expansion toward the analyst high.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · AMC.
What can break
Biosimilar competition driving pricing/volume erosion
Momentum
93
Value
61
Sentiment
27
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $333.98 · Bull $425.00 · Bear $180.00Analysis 2026-01-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
69 · Speculative
Next 2026-11-03 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-28 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $405.32
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d +5.2
Value61 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment27 · Δ7d -4.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
69Speculative2026-11-03 amc
AMGN has a meaningful positive whisper gap ($6.07 versus $5.70 consensus) and management previously raised 2026 revenue and EPS guidance; strong growth-driver sales support the operating story. The stock closed near its three-session high, but recent volume did not establish 1.5x accumulation, XLV was slightly weaker, and the higher informal bar plus spending and loss-of-exclusivity concerns temper the setup.
Screen as of 2026-10-28. Window 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-03.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · AMC.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 69 / speculative.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Biosimilar competition driving pricing/volume erosion
- • Disappointing capital-allocation actions or integration outcomes
- • Bear: trial failures, accelerated biosimilar erosion, or adverse pricing/regulatory moves compress revenue and push valuation toward analyst lows.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-03 · AMC
FY2025 Q4 earnings & guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
93
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.2
Δ21d
+17.7
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
27
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.3
Δ21d
-14.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 93.4 / Value 61.2 / Sentiment 27.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$333.98
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$242.18B
Beta
0.46
Shares Out
540.63M
P/E (TTM)
24.8
P/S (TTM)
4.80
P/FCF (TTM)
26.60
Rev YoY
+9.8%
EPS YoY
+64.9%
Gross Margin
+72.7%
Op Margin
+33.3%
Net Debt
$46.31B
Current Ratio
1.37
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data