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AME

AMETEKC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary-source evidence improved after earnings: Q1 delivered double-digit sales and adjusted EPS growth, record orders/backlog, a higher full-year EPS guide, and Q2 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.96-$2.00, while management also added a fresh aerospace MRO acquisition hook [#8-K-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-04-30]. A visible post-print analyst reaction was constructive, with BMO reiterating Outperform and a $262 target on May 1 while citing 22% organic orders growth and record backlog.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
First Aviation adds regulatory, close, and integration execution risk even if it fits AMETEK's bolt-on strategy [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Momentum
62
Value
52
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $245.00 · Bull $262.00 · Bear $210.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $281.94
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d -2.2
Value52 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -2.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • First Aviation adds regulatory, close, and integration execution risk even if it fits AMETEK's bolt-on strategy [#8-K-2026-04-30].
  • • Management's forward-looking disclosures still flag tariffs, trade disputes, supply-chain disruptions, currency, and raw-material availability as potential pressure points [#8-K-2026-04-30].
  • • The stock already reflects a quality premium, so the bar remains high if the Q2 guide proves too optimistic, backlog conversion moderates, acquisition benefits fade, or First Aviation integration and approval timing become a distraction.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Q1 beat-and-raise with record orders and backlog

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
62
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
+2.9
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
+2.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 62.3 / Value 52.5 / Sentiment 63.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
28%
Probability
Target price
$262.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
47%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$210.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$58.27B
Beta
1.04
Shares Out
229.26M
P/E (TTM)
33.3
P/S (TTM)
6.79
P/FCF (TTM)
35.68
Rev YoY
+15.0%
EPS YoY
+14.3%
Gross Margin
+40.9%
Op Margin
+26.5%
Net Debt
$2.11B
Current Ratio
1.21
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data