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AMCR

AmcorB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The strongest supported bull argument is that post-Berry integration is translating into real scale benefits: Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose 87%, adjusted EBIT rose 79%, margins improved, and synergy capture hit the upper end of expectations, while fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was maintained [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-04 · AMC.
What can break
Berry integration synergies may undershoot or arrive later than expected, pressuring the margin-expansion thesis.
Momentum
83
Value
53
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $47.00 · Bull $51.00 · Bear $38.00Analysis 2026-07-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-04 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $50.61
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +4.9
Value53 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -1.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-04 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Berry integration synergies may undershoot or arrive later than expected, pressuring the margin-expansion thesis.
  • • Free cash flow remains a monitoring point after negative quarterly free cash flow in the Q3 earnings release [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
  • • The main bear case is that much of the reported growth is acquisition-driven, free cash flow in the reported quarter was negative, and management explicitly referenced a challenging market environment plus Middle East conflict impacts, leaving less room for execution misses if integration, pricing, or portfolio optimization slip [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].

Catalyst clock

2026-11-04 · AMC

Fiscal 2026 guidance hold after Q3 integration update

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.9
Δ21d
+25.8
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
-17.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 82.7 / Value 53.1 / Sentiment 62.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$21.11B
Beta
0.67
Shares Out
462.35M
P/E (TTM)
24.7
P/S (TTM)
1.12
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
650.43
Rev YoY
+25.9%
EPS YoY
-974.0%
Gross Margin
+17.5%
Op Margin
+8.6%
Net Debt
$13.97B
Current Ratio
1.25
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data