B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AMCR
AmcorBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest supported bull argument is that post-Berry integration is translating into real scale benefits: Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose 87%, adjusted EBIT rose 79%, margins improved, and synergy capture hit the upper end of expectations, while fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was maintained [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.5.
What can break
Berry integration synergies may undershoot or arrive later than expected, pressuring the margin-expansion thesis.
Momentum
56
Value
55
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $47.00 · Bull $51.00 · Bear $38.00Analysis 2026-07-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $49.62
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d +5.4
Value55 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +10.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Berry integration synergies may undershoot or arrive later than expected, pressuring the margin-expansion thesis.
- • Free cash flow remains a monitoring point after negative quarterly free cash flow in the Q3 earnings release [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
- • The main bear case is that much of the reported growth is acquisition-driven, free cash flow in the reported quarter was negative, and management explicitly referenced a challenging market environment plus Middle East conflict impacts, leaving less room for execution misses if integration, pricing, or portfolio optimization slip [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
Catalyst clock
2026-08-15
Fiscal 2026 guidance hold after Q3 integration update
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.4
Δ21d
-16.8
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+8.4
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.5
Δ21d
+6.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 55.9 / Value 54.9 / Sentiment 68.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$21.05B
Beta
0.67
Shares Out
462.35M
P/E (TTM)
24.7
P/S (TTM)
1.12
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
648.58
Rev YoY
+25.9%
EPS YoY
-974.0%
Gross Margin
+17.5%
Op Margin
+8.6%
Net Debt
$13.97B
Current Ratio
1.25
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data