AMBP

Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging First Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Stephen Lyons. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the first quarter. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer; and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the first quarter can be found on AMP's website at ardaghmetalpackaging.com/investors. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

Thanks, Stephen. We're pleased to report strong first quarter results for AMP with adjusted EBITDA growth of 15% versus the prior year, significantly ahead of our guidance and demonstrating the resilience of our business. Beverage can sales declined by 1% versus the prior-year quarter, in line with our expectations as we cycled strong prior year growth of 6% and due to the impact of contract resets in North America. Our adjusted EBITDA outperformance in the quarter was driven by Europe, which benefited from strong input cost recovery, including a favorable timing impact from the revaluation of freight cost-related hedging as well as favorable volume mix effects. Performance in the Americas was broadly in line with expectations. Brazil delivered strong results driven by above-market volume growth, which was offset by the impact of a more challenging operating environment in North America where adverse weather conditions and aluminum supply chain disruptions drove higher operational costs. While the supply chain situation is improving, we do expect to see further impact into Q2. The conflict in the Middle East did not have any material impact on our Q1 performance. AMP has no manufacturing operations in the Middle East and no significant direct supply chain exposure. We continue to monitor the geopolitical environment and the associated volatility in input costs, in particular, energy, freight and certain direct materials. AMP's exposure to the recent increase in energy prices is small given our hedge positions for 2026 and beyond. However, we do anticipate some moderate input cost increases in the second half as a result of the impact of the Middle East conflict on certain direct materials. Now looking at AMP's quarter 1 results by segment. In Europe, first quarter revenue increased by 18% to $625 million or by 6% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2025. This was due to favorable volume mix effects, including the impact of the IFRS 15 contract asset and the pass-through of higher input costs, including higher aluminum prices. Shipments declined by 1% for the quarter, which reflected the ramp-up of new contracts and the cycling of a strong prior year comparable of 5%. We experienced good growth in carbonated soft drinks and the energy category and across our diverse range of smaller growing categories. Through this strong underlying growth in nonalcoholic categories as well as our commercial actions and network enhancements, our portfolio saw a favorable mix shift in the period and good growth in specialty can volumes. First quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 53% versus the prior year to $75 million, strongly ahead of expectations. On a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA increased by 36%, principally due to higher input cost recovery and favorable volume mix, including the impact of the IFRS 15 contract asset, partly offset by higher operational and overhead costs. Our input cost recovery in the quarter benefited from a favorable timing impact from the revaluation of freight cost-related hedging. Regarding our direct energy exposure, AMP is well covered for its energy needs in 2026 and beyond. For 2026, we're over 85% covered for our energy requirements; for 2027, over 75%, and we're more than 60% covered for 2028. In 2026, in terms of volume growth, we reaffirm our expectation of around 3% in Europe. Capacity remains tight in the region, and we are therefore optimizing our network to better serve higher-demand can sizes in faster-growing categories. In our last update, we highlighted our intention to add additional capacity within existing facilities in the attractive markets of Spain and the U.K. on a measured basis over the coming years. We continue to progress these plans, which are underpinned by our favorable market positions and our confidence in Europe's growth outlook. In the first 2 months of the year, beverage packaging scanner data across our markets continue to show share gains for the beverage can versus other packaging substrates. In the Americas, revenue in the first quarter increased by 19% to $879 million, principally reflecting the pass-through of higher input costs to customers, including the impact of the higher Midwest Premium and favorable volume mix effects. Americas adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was broadly in line with expectations with a 2% decrease versus the prior year to $104 million, primarily driven by higher operations and overhead costs and lower input cost recovery, partly offset by favorable volume mix effects. The strong performance in Brazil, driven by 14% shipments growth and increased fixed cost absorption was offset by a more challenging operating environment in North America. In North America, shipments decreased by 5% for the quarter. This reflected lower volumes after expected contract resets, the impact on operations from supply chain challenges and the cycling of a strong prior-year comparable of 8%. Supply chain challenges in the period included the impact of disruptions to metal supply and adverse weather at the beginning of the year. Underlying demand dynamics in the industry remain robust with strong industry scanner data year-to-date with the exception of the beer category to which AMP has only a low single-digit exposure. In particular, the energy category continues to record strong growth supported by broader distribution and further innovation. AMP continued to enjoy good growth in the energy category in the quarter, reflecting our broad positioning across the category. Looking into 2026, we continue to expect industry growth of a low single-digit percent. As previously indicated, we expect some softness for AMP following contract resets. We anticipate 2026 being a transition year with a small volume decline and with a more favorable second half volume versus the first half. We expect to return to growth in 2027, at least in line with the industry on the back of additional contracted filling locations and our attractive portfolio. Of note in North America was that on April 6, 2026, the court entered a jury verdict pending any post-trial motions in connection with the lawsuit filed against Boston Beer in 2022 for breach of contract in respect of minimum volume purchase requirements. And the jury awarded damages of approximately $175 million to AMP, plus pre-judgment interest if assessed. In Brazil, first quarter beverage shipments increased by 14%, which represented a strong improvement versus the fourth quarter and was also ahead of the industry due to our customer mix. Industry data indicates that following a strong start to the year in January and February, March activity was softer and resulted in an overall modest decline in volumes in the first quarter. Looking into the remainder of 2026, we continue to expect industry growth of a low to mid-single-digit percentage and for AMP's volumes to broadly track the market. I'll hand over now to Stefan to talk you through our financial position for the quarter before finishing with some concluding remarks.

Thank you, Ollie, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. We ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of $488 million, in line with expectations. We note that in addition to our strong liquidity position, we have no near-term bond maturities and the currency mix of our debt broadly matches the currency mix of our earnings. During the quarter, AMP completed the refinancing of the asset-based lending facility, which was upsized to $450 million and with its maturity date extended to January 2031. Net leverage of 5.7x net debt over the last 12 months adjusted EBITDA compares with 5.5x in the prior year quarter, with the increase reflecting the impact of the refinancing of the preferred shares in December. Excluding this impact, the underlying net leverage metrics slightly declined year-over-year. In terms of 2026, we approximately expect the following for the various components of free cash flow, total CapEx of $200 million, including growth investments, cash interest of $220 million, lease principal repayments of approximately $115 million. Lease payments were higher in the first quarter versus the prior year, which reflected the buyout of an existing lease in North America. Cash tax of approximately $30 million and a small outflow in working capital. Finally, today, we have announced our unchanged quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share. And with that, I'll hand it back to Ollie.

Thanks, Stefan. So just before questions, I'll just recap on AMP's performance and key messages. Firstly, adjusted EBITDA of $179 million in the first quarter exceeded our guidance range of $160 million to $170 million, driven by a strong performance in Europe. Global volumes declined by 1%, in line with our expectations, reflecting the impact of a strong prior year comparable of 6% and the impact of contract resets in North America. Thirdly, AMP has no manufacturing operations in the Middle East and no significant direct supply exposure. AMP's energy cost position is protected through a strongly hedged position in 2026 and beyond. For 2026, we reaffirm our adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $750 million to $775 million. Adjusted EBITDA growth is expected to be driven by operational efficiencies and cost savings, volume growth and improved category mix. We view 2026 as a transition year in North America with volumes ahead of an expected return to growth, at least in line with the industry in 2027. In terms of guidance for the second quarter, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of between $210 million and $220 million versus the prior-year quarter of $212 million on a constant currency... [Technical Difficulty]

Please stand by.

We think we lost connection -- so we're just opening the call up to questions now.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Matt Roberts from Raymond James.

In the prepared remarks, you noticed modest cost increases in the second half. Can you give any additional color on what specific categories those are in? Is it more pronounced in a certain region? Or what is not covered in pass-through or has a lag in recovery, whether that's freight, energy, coatings? Any additional detail there?

Sure. Yes. That's mostly in our coatings area. So I think, as I said in the remarks, we're very well covered on the energy side. There are some pass-through provisions in coating contracts in year that will potentially come through in the second half if oil prices stay very elevated. But they obviously haven't changed our guidance range. So that gives you a sense of the scale.

Right. I appreciate that. And you did note that you did reaffirm the guide. 1Q came in a little bit better than you were expecting. sounds like volumes broadly are similar as well. Has anything changed on the volume outlook by region? Or based on the 1Q beat, would that imply the cost headwinds are around roughly $15 million. Could you ballpark that, if possible?

No, sure, Matt. Look, I think it's -- we're just at Q1, there's plenty of the year to go. So I think that's one reason just to remain a little bit cautious given the state of the world. There's a little bit of input cost inflation we expect in the second half. I think we have to accept that the consumer is facing into a lot of inflation at the minute. So we can't be absolutely sure though. We didn't see a reason to change our volume guides because when we looked at the Q1 market data that we could see in our numbers, we saw a lot of strength in that data. And Europe, I think, particularly, we've got data in January and February in our key markets. There's some real double-digit growth rates in some of those markets in particularly soft drinks categories. Brazil obviously had a very strong January and February coming off a very strong November, December. So in other words, a very strong summer. We're going into the winter season. We do have the World Cup in the winter season, which should be favorable. And North America, again, the volume number is still extremely strong across soft drinks categories, particularly energy, especially going into the Easter period, strong promo activity. So although I think it's appropriate to be cautious at this stage of the year, we definitely saw no reason to really change the volume numbers on a concrete basis. So I think, yes, we're just being cautious around possible input cost inflation in H2 and recognizing that the consumer may be under some pressure during the year.

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our next question from George Staphos with Bank of America.

Congratulations on the progress so far this year. I'll ask three questions in sequence and return to queue just for time. First of all, can you talk about what the impact was on the timing effect on the hedge revaluation in Europe? How large of a factor was that? Is there any residual into the rest of the year? Secondly, Ollie, you talked -- touched on it a little bit. Can you talk about what World Cup and to some degree, America's 250 is meaning for volume relative to what a normal summer might look like? And then third point, Brazil, can you talk a little bit about how things softened there in the market? What's causing that? And any outlook that you can take into, obviously, now the weaker winter months and the implications for the rest of the year?

Sure. Thanks, George. Yes, on the first one, I think sort of mid-single-digit millions of benefit in the quarter from the European freight hedging position coming from, obviously, we're careful around hedging some of the positions that are on us. There is some possibility of that -- some of that reversing depending on what happens to commodity costs in the year. So some of that is potentially a timing impact, which is why we're not overrating it in our forward guidance. So that's the sort of order of magnitude for that. I think the World Cup and maybe Brazil, those questions get a bit intertwined because I think where it has the potential to be probably most impactful is in Brazil, given that it's falling in the winter period, given the sponsorship of the Brazilian national team and the focus on the World Cup and assuming they go deep into the tournament. So that's why we would be hopeful that this slightly negative start to the year on the full quarter after a very good January and February would be moderated into Q2 and Q3. And we'd also be hopeful after the summer we had, that we've just come through that next summer would also be a good summer. So we think some of the macro elements are stabilizing. We've also got some elections. So -- and then we do see in the data that we continue to have the can take share from returnable, and we know that's a long-term trend that will continue. Obviously, the major brewer down there controls some of that dynamic and obviously, they have their own pressures that drive it sometimes quarter-to-quarter. But I think if you look at the long-term trend, certainly still well in place. So yes, I wouldn't overread too much probably in the Q1 numbers in Brazil. I think we're still hopeful as we said, sort of low to mid number for the year and for us to be in line with that. And then World Cup outside of Brazil, I mean, certainly, Europe, we saw a tick up in -- towards the end of the quarter in terms of label activity, graphics activity. So we're definitely seeing a lot of sort of promotional-type cans or individual-type cans coming into the mix into the inventory build, and that would suggest World Cup. And I think we're seeing elsewhere in the market some signs that there could be some positive effects. I mean I'm always cautious to call it too early. We need to see it sell-through. It's often very weather-related as well in terms of how exactly it plays through. But yes, all positive signs at the moment, I think, in both Europe and Brazil.

Just one quick one, just a yes or no, and I'll turn it over. On aluminum, you mentioned you are seeing supply constraints in North America, at least that's what I took away. Despite the constraints, do you feel like you're positioned well enough to be able to meet your commitments over the rest of the year? And then I'll turn it over to the rest of the team -- the rest of the guys.

Yes. No, good question. Look, I think it does seem like the situation is moderating quite quickly now. As we've gone into April, I think a lot of metal is coming into the market from overseas that obviously was on long supply chains. And so we do see that landing now and helping to improve the situation. We also have the first new mill ramping up now. We have the second new mill coming at the end of the year. So I think we're hopeful now that we're through the worst. I think the Middle East conflict didn't help. I mean that some supply out of the Middle East obviously got restricted in March. But as we see the trends now sitting towards the end of April and going into May, yes, we're hopeful that, that's all moderating. And we certainly don't see any need to change our guidance or change our forecast off the back of it.

[Operator Instructions] And we'll take our next question from Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Just following up on volumes and the Middle East conflict. It sounds like you haven't seen any impact and obviously don't have any assets in the region. But I'm just wondering, you talked about strong scanner data in January, February. I think the conflict started at the very end of February. As you look at March, April, have you seen any change in order patterns in terms of people prebuying or maybe easing off? Or as you just -- as you talk to customers or channel partners, is there a sense that there could be an impact if this continues to go on or maybe it's better or worse in North America versus Europe? Or just any color you could give would be helpful.

No, I guess, look, I don't want to mislead in the January, February comments. That's just where we actually have data because obviously, we're still just in April. So not all the March data and the full quarter data has come through. So our impression actually is that Europe strengthened in March after some very, very encouraging scanner data for January and February, particularly Germany, very strong again on the soft drinks side. So I think my prediction would be that March scanner data for Europe will be good. Everything we're seeing in our numbers was good in March and continues into April in a good way. So no, definitely not if I think about Europe. And then again, North America, we saw going into Easter really good volumes. We saw that in our business, particularly in certain categories. So certainly nothing to suggest that there's any change at this point. So it's just more that there clearly was something going on in Brazil in that January and February was stronger than March. But as you go into the winter season, you always -- can always be a little bit volatile depending on how people build inventory into the summer and what they were left with. And obviously, we're into the slower season. So I think one of the reasons we've held guidance, we've held our volume forecast despite the situation in the world, I think it demonstrates the resilience of the beverage can sector, of the way our customers are using beverage cans in their mix and particularly prioritizing the beverage can and then also the resilience of our own business. So clearly, a very positive outlook from our point of view to hold guidance in this current geopolitical environment.

Great. Great. No, that's very helpful. And I guess maybe just one follow-up on Europe. I mean it seems like results really exceeded your expectations. Is the biggest surprise there from your perspective on the volume side in CSD or energy drinks? Or is it the cost recovery? Just if you think about sort of the bridge versus your initial expectations, like what was the biggest driver from your perspective of the outperformance?

No. I think the biggest driver was clearly the input cost recovery. We mentioned the timing effect and the one-offs potentially around the freight. But also, we did see the mix benefit in the quarter that was strong. So we've got some good specialty can growth because of the categories we're in. And that also did play into the IFRS 15 contract asset because we had very strong production and good specialty volumes. So both of those also played into the contract asset and volume mix. So yes, just a really good performance by the region, I think, delivered against our expectations, ramped up our new specialty volumes. We did a change to one of our plants to improve our specialty footprint, and that ramped up extremely well. So production was a bit ahead. And then yes, very good delivery on all elements of cost.

And our next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

It's Anojja Shah sitting in for Josh. I just had a question on the Boston Beer verdict. What steps are left in order for you to get that $175 million? Like is it a definite? It's just a matter of time? Or what legal steps are left? And when might you actually receive this? And will it have any impact on your capital allocation priorities?

Yes. No, we're not going to talk in much detail about it because it's still clearly legal proceedings. But clearly, there is a potential -- they have the option to appeal. That could mean that obviously, they could appeal it and that could delay realization. We don't see that changing our capital allocation priorities at this point. At the minute, we've laid out the next investments that we see that makes sense for the business. And obviously, we're also very conscious of making sure we stay within our leverage position. So at the minute, we don't see it changing any capital allocation policies.

Okay. And on the aluminum availability issue, can you quantify what the drag was in Q1 and maybe what's in your guidance for Q2? And then do you expect it to fall away after that?

So we think across the weather, I mean, we sort of forget now, but actually sort of January, Feb, there was some very cold weather in the South of the United States that led to a lot of disruption. So we had people struggling to get to our facilities, struggling to get to customer facilities and freight issues on the roads. So between that and the metal, we think we lost 1 to 2 points of growth in the quarter across both ends and cans. So that's the sort of order of magnitude we saw in the quarter. At the minute, we're not predicting anything particularly in the guidance for Q2. So we sort of held roughly to where we had planned to be because certainly in the last couple of weeks, things have improved quite significantly. So at the moment, we'd be hopeful we can come through Q2 without any significant drag. But maybe, Stefan, you can add anything to that.

Yes. Maybe just in regards to the cost side of the impact, we had adverse impact on freight costs as well as manufacturing costs. So we had to move a little bit around sort of product in our manufacturing network and had some unfavorable freight lanes as a result. And also in terms of the operations, it was more -- a little more from hand to mouth, shorter runs, maybe not running the right spec all the time in terms of metal. So if you add that all up, it was probably a mid- to high single-digit impact in the quarter.

Mid- to high single-digit millions on EBITDA, you mean?

Yes, correct.

And we'll go next to Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

Maybe I'll just get your thoughts on the potential -- the inflation and what you're seeing on the tariff side as well. So in North America, I guess, there -- how has the Midwest Premium affected demand and can pricing, if at all? And do you see that changing with 232?

Yes. We keep looking for it because obviously, between the LME and the Midwest, they're pretty significant. And this has been going on for a while. So people's hedge positions may be rolling off a little bit. But we're not seeing it. We're not seeing it in the data. We're not seeing it in our customers mix and their plans, and not seeing it on the shelf. So I think the can has got a lot of resilience at the moment, the fact that it does remain a very efficient package. The fact that consumers are clearly favoring it, I think, and that obviously drives these brand companies to rightly take note of what their consumers want. And then in certain parts of the world, the sustainability credentials also play very strongly. So the tariff situation hasn't got better. If anything, the last piece made it marginally worse, but not significantly. But as I say, I mean, right now, I think all the data is really a testament to the resilience of the industry and the substrate. And what we are also seeing now, obviously, is inflationary impact into petrochemical and energy, which are obviously negative for the competing substrates. So I think net-net, although we should always be cautious and with the inflation that the consumer is facing more generally, the can seems to be continuing to win in the mix.

Just to clarify, is it the case that the beverage companies, your customers are absorbing some of that extra cost and not necessarily passing that on in higher beverage prices. And so they're continuing to promote? Or is it that customers are paying higher prices, but they're willing to do that...

Yes. There was obviously a very significant increase in pricing over the last few years post COVID and all of the inflationary effects that happened after COVID. So I think there's room for some absorption. But equally, we don't know all the ins and outs of our customers' P&L. And again, particularly, we don't know the nature of their hedge positions and other ways they might be offsetting these costs. I don't think we're seeing a huge amount of price increase at retail. If we look at the promo information, promos are still strong. And there isn't a lot of room, I think, to increase price much further given the price increase over the last few years. So our sense of it is more that our customers are managing it.

And just on that supply-demand side. So given the strong growth, I guess, in Europe, I'm not sure if you would need to potentially add any capacity there. Similarly, in North America, strong energy growth, I guess, could continue. So maybe you can just let us know what your plans are on capacity additions in Europe, North America and Brazil, if any?

Sure. Yes. So I think we said it in the prepared remarks, and we talked about it at the Q4. So we do plan to add capacity in Europe. That's where we're the most tight in terms of our network and our utilization with Spain and the U.K. being the 2 markets we'll invest in. And those projects will come in, in the next couple of years to support the growth that we have, but also it's an extremely supportive market environment, and we see our peers investing behind that environment. We see our customers really putting growth plans behind the can supported by those investments. So yes, we'll absolutely be participating through growth investments in Europe. At the moment in North America, particularly with the contract resets that took place last year, we've got space in the network. We do need to make sure we get the mix right. We've made some very good investments to increase the flexibility of the network in North America. That means we're very well positioned for different types of growth, but we may continue to do that at the margin just to make sure our network is really tuned for particularly specialty can growth. And then Brazil, yes, we have good capacity availability. We put a lot into the Northeast where we still need to grow into that. The Southeast is a bit tighter. But again, I think with the improvements we're making in the network, we've got space in Brazil. So nothing planned there in the short term.

And we'll move to Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo.

This is actually Richard Carlson on for Gabe this morning. So first question I want to ask you guys about Europe. I mean you guys have mentioned that you don't have direct exposure to the conflict in the Middle East, but certainly some of your competitors do. And so are you seeing any change in the marketplace from guys who are saying they're having a hard time getting the metal supplier or getting the energy supply that they need?

No, really not. And again, I think what we understand is most of the impact is occurring just in region with facilities being stopped or particularly to the east of the region. So I think markets that are supplied with energy out of the Gulf, markets like India, that's where I think the impact is landing, not in Europe where you've got much more developed supply chains and much less direct exposure to the region. So no, we're not seeing any near-term impact in Europe.

Right. And your plants are all natural gas, right?

I mean we operate with a mixture of gas and electricity. So yes, that's what we operate with.

Got it. And then I think you were touching on this with Anojja's question. But as we think about the new cadence for the year, presumably, there's some -- you got some good momentum going into Q2. How has your Q2 outlook changed over the past couple of months? It seems like now you, of course, got a little more front-end loaded for the year. But are you seeing now -- has your guide from what you thought it would have been 2 or 3 months ago increased?

No, I don't think so. I think to the extent that there are going to be different impacts from when we first issued guidance, it's mostly sitting in the second half, so either a little bit of input cost inflation. Obviously, in our guidance is some caution. We're in Q1. We've not seen how this conflict plays out. We've not seen potentially the scale of the inflationary impacts or the disruption. So we're being cautious. But I think that to the extent that we're adjusting slightly, it's more Q3, Q4 where we're just not putting through all the gains that we've made in Q1. I think Q2 is sitting pretty much where we already had it and Stefan is nodding. So it seems I got that right.

Yes, agree.

And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our Q&A session for today. I'll turn the conference back to Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks.

Thanks, Lisa. Thanks, everyone, on the call. So just summarizing, in the first quarter, we reported strong adjusted EBITDA growth of 15% versus the prior year, significantly ahead of guidance and particularly driven by a strong performance in Europe. And I think a testament to the resilience of the industry and of AMP. And on the back of that, even in the face of the current geopolitical environment, we reaffirm our guidance for 2026 full year adjusted EBITDA in the range of $750 million to $775 million, supported by our robust input cost pass-through mechanisms and our energy hedging arrangements. And so with that, we'll sign off and look forward to talking to you again at our Q2 results. Thank you.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.