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AMBP

Ardagh Metal PackagingB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
European shipments rose 6%, Q3 EBITDA exceeded company guidance, and full-year EBITDA guidance increased. The announced UK and Spain lines could support growth if demand and returns hold.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.3.
What can break
A potential parent stake sale has no confirmed transaction terms or minority-shareholder outcome. [#PR-PARENT-2026-10-22] Ardagh Group Q3 release
Momentum
54
Value
55
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.90 · Bull $5.60 · Bear $3.75Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.05
Why
Momentum54 · Δ7d -3.9
Value55 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -2.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A potential parent stake sale has no confirmed transaction terms or minority-shareholder outcome. [#PR-PARENT-2026-10-22] Ardagh Group Q3 release
  • • Americas volume, customer-mix and contract-reset pressure may persist despite Q3 improvement. [#PR-2026-10-22] Company Q3 release
  • • Americas shipments fell 1% and segment EBITDA declined 3%; Brazil shipments fell 5% amid customer mix and a contract reset.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-23

Q3 beat versus company EBITDA guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
54
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.9
Δ21d
-3.7
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
-17.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 53.5 / Value 55.3 / Sentiment 60.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.73B
Beta
0.56
Shares Out
597.71M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-247.8
P/S (TTM)
0.46
P/FCF (TTM)
54.72
Rev YoY
+17.7%
EPS YoY
-3547.1%
Gross Margin
+10.4%
Op Margin
+5.3%
Net Debt
$3.9B
Current Ratio
1.06
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data