AMBP

Ardagh Metal PackagingB

NYSE / Materials

At close

2026-07-18

Current thesis

Execution beats (better pricing, stable aluminium input costs), continued share gains in beverage customers, and improved cash conversion push multiple toward or above historical averages, supporting upside to the bull target of $5.30.

Posture

Constructive

Lead driver

Momentum

What changed

Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-07-23 · BMO.

What can break

A slowdown in beverage-packaging demand in key EU/US markets would reduce utilization and amplify fixed-cost leverage.

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $4.60 · Bull $5.30 · Bear $3.20

Earnings

2026-07-23 · BMO

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-18

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-16 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-18

Supporting evidence

What

Grade B · Constructive

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $4.91

Why

Momentum91 · Δ7d +4.2

Value48 · Δ7d -0.1

Sentiment48 · Δ7d -4.3

So what

Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Lead driver: Momentum · See technicals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+4.2

Δ21d

+16.6

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

-0.1

Δ21d

-0.4

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-4.3

Δ21d

-3.3

Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 90.5 / Value 47.6 / Sentiment 48.3

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-16

Market Cap

$2.84B

Beta

0.56

Shares Out

597.71M

P/E (TTM) · Derived

-258.2

P/S (TTM)

0.46

P/FCF (TTM)

54.72

Rev YoY

+18.6%

EPS YoY

-54.3%

Gross Margin

+10.0%

Op Margin

+4.9%

Net Debt

$3.9B

Current Ratio

1.06

As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology