B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALTO
Alto IngredientsANasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Four consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA, as reported by management, and successful capacity and efficiency work could support earnings beyond the favorable Q2 environment. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
A $50 million ATM program creates dilution risk if used. [#8-K-2026-08-07]
Momentum
37
Value
71
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.65 · Bull $5.00 · Bear $2.10Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-29
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.33
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d +16.7
Value71 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +5.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A $50 million ATM program creates dilution risk if used. [#8-K-2026-08-07]
- • Capacity, CO2 and 45Z initiatives lack sufficiently quantified timing and returns in the checked company release. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
- • Q2 profitability may not persist through ethanol and input-cost cycles; project returns remain uncertain, and use of the ATM could dilute holders.
Catalyst clock
2027-03-31
Test whether Q2 profitability persists
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
37
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+16.7
Δ21d
+12.7
Value
71
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.8
Δ21d
-7.0
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 37.0 / Value 71.3 / Sentiment 60.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$3.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$2.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-29
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$283.13M
Beta
0.59
Shares Out
77.57M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
22.5
P/S (TTM)
0.21
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
5.70
Rev YoY
+12.5%
EPS YoY
-197.4%
Gross Margin
+6.7%
Op Margin
+5.5%
Net Debt
$71.92M
Current Ratio
3.19
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data