B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$137.67
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALSN
Allison TransmissionCNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case rests on record Allison Transmission revenue, Defense and North American truck momentum, Off-Highway recovery in construction/material handling and mining, strong cash generation, share repurchases, and debt repayment. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Agriculture demand has not yet shown a positive inflection.
Momentum
86
Value
65
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $118.13 · Bull $137.67 · Bear $104.00Analysis 2026-08-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $144.09
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d +3.3
Value65 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -1.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Agriculture demand has not yet shown a positive inflection.
- • GAAP net income and diluted EPS declined year over year despite higher adjusted metrics.
- • The bear case is that consolidated growth is acquisition-led, GAAP net income and EPS declined, agriculture remains weak, integration costs persist, and leverage plus higher interest expense limit equity upside.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-03
Q2 results showed strong adjusted operating and cash-flow growth
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
86
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
+22.7
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+1.7
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
+1.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 85.8 / Value 65.2 / Sentiment 56.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$118.13
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$104.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.5B
Beta
0.97
Shares Out
82.58M
P/E (TTM)
12.0
P/S (TTM)
2.66
P/FCF (TTM)
15.16
Rev YoY
+92.4%
EPS YoY
-6.1%
Gross Margin
+35.3%
Op Margin
+21.4%
Net Debt
$1.41B
Current Ratio
1.81
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data