RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

ALSN

Allison TransmissionB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Raised guidance, record legacy sales, strong Q2 cash generation and successful Off-Highway integration could support upside. Q2 adjusted free cash flow was $281 million.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
What can break
Agriculture demand has not yet positively inflected, and cyclical end markets could reverse. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
Momentum
36
Value
66
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $105.00 · Bull $135.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-10-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $138.62
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d -5.4
Value66 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +5.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Agriculture demand has not yet positively inflected, and cyclical end markets could reverse. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
  • • Higher material and manufacturing costs continue to pressure legacy Transmission gross profit. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
  • • Acquisition-led sales growth may obscure weaker underlying profitability: legacy gross profit declined despite higher sales, while acquired Off-Highway margins were much lower.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Execution against raised 2026 guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
36
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.4
Δ21d
-27.1
Value
66
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
-10.5
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 35.7 / Value 65.8 / Sentiment 53.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$8.85B
Beta
0.97
Shares Out
82.58M
P/E (TTM)
12.0
P/S (TTM)
2.66
P/FCF (TTM)
15.16
Rev YoY
+92.4%
EPS YoY
-6.1%
Gross Margin
+35.3%
Op Margin
+21.4%
Net Debt
$1.41B
Current Ratio
1.81
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data