RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

ALRS

Alerus FinancialD
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Durable NIM expansion, stable deposits, and healthy loan growth drive above-consensus EPS and multiple expansion toward the analyst high (~$27).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
What can break
Capital actions that limit buybacks/dividends
Momentum
69
Value
48
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $25.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-01-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $35.20
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d +1.9
Value48 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment41 · Δ7d -1.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Capital actions that limit buybacks/dividends
  • • Deposit outflows / higher funding costs
  • • Margin pressure, rising credit costs, or deposit outflows reduce EPS visibility and push the stock toward a stressed valuation (~$22).

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

Q1 2026 results and guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
69
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
-3.2
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
41
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-4.0
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 68.8 / Value 47.6 / Sentiment 40.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$803.66M
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
24.93M
P/E (TTM)
12.0
P/S (TTM)
2.06
P/FCF (TTM)
20.96
Rev YoY
+1.7%
EPS YoY
+4.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+10.8%
Net Debt
$337.07M
Current Ratio
0.03
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data