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ALRS

Alerus FinancialD
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Durable NIM expansion, stable deposits, and healthy loan growth drive above-consensus EPS and multiple expansion toward the analyst high (~$27).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.
What can break
Capital actions that limit buybacks/dividends
Momentum
65
Value
48
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $25.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-01-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $35.40
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d -6.1
Value48 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment44 · Δ7d +0.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Capital actions that limit buybacks/dividends
  • • Deposit outflows / higher funding costs
  • • Margin pressure, rising credit costs, or deposit outflows reduce EPS visibility and push the stock toward a stressed valuation (~$22).

Catalyst clock

2026-04-29

Q1 2026 results and guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
65
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.1
Δ21d
-16.9
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
44
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+0.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 65.0 / Value 47.5 / Sentiment 44.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$834.01M
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
24.9M
P/E (TTM)
12.0
P/S (TTM)
2.06
P/FCF (TTM)
20.96
Rev YoY
+1.7%
EPS YoY
+4.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+10.8%
Net Debt
$337.07M
Current Ratio
0.03
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data