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ALLE

Allegion PublicA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print materially improved the near-term thesis: Americas-led organic growth, margin expansion, and raised FY2026 revenue and adjusted-EPS guidance support continued positive earnings revisions if execution holds.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.0.
What can break
ERP execution problems and restructuring actions could delay International margin recovery.
Momentum
74
Value
60
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $170.00 · Bull $185.00 · Bear $135.00Analysis 2026-07-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $175.10
Why
Momentum74 · Δ7d -12.1
Value60 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment74 · Δ7d +3.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • ERP execution problems and restructuring actions could delay International margin recovery.
  • • Recent Form 4 filings show officer open-market sales; these are insider-activity signals only and are not evidence of operating weakness [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-27].
  • • The positive print does not resolve weaker European demand, Germany exposure, ERP execution, or restructuring costs.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-23

Q2 beat and raised FY2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
74
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.1
Δ21d
-11.1
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.0
Δ21d
+5.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 73.8 / Value 59.9 / Sentiment 74.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$170.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$13.78B
Beta
1.04
Shares Out
85.04M
P/E (TTM)
21.9
P/S (TTM)
3.50
P/FCF (TTM)
27.45
Rev YoY
+12.7%
EPS YoY
+16.1%
Gross Margin
+44.8%
Op Margin
+20.8%
Net Debt
$1.79B
Current Ratio
1.93
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data