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ALLE

Allegion PublicB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The adjusted EPS beat, higher full-year outlook and Americas non-residential volume and pricing support a positive thesis update. BofA Securities reportedly upgraded ALLE from Neutral to Buy and raised its target from $164 to $200 on October 23.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
After the 11.02% earnings-day gain, a failure to meet raised full-year guidance could prompt a sharper reversal. Company earnings release Price history
Momentum
88
Value
55
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
7 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $184.00 · Bull $200.00 · Bear $150.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $175.60
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +15.9
Value55 · Δ7d -2.5
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +2.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • After the 11.02% earnings-day gain, a failure to meet raised full-year guidance could prompt a sharper reversal. Company earnings release Price history
  • • Americas acquisitions were a 40-basis-point Q3 adjusted-margin headwind, creating integration and mix-execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
  • • International volume declines and weaker mix persisted in Q3, and Americas acquisitions reduced regional adjusted margin by 40 basis points.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-22

Q3 beat and earnings-day repricing

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
88
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.9
Δ21d
+19.2
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.5
Δ21d
-3.7
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
-15.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 88.5 / Value 55.3 / Sentiment 57.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$184.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$15.22B
Beta
1.04
Shares Out
85.04M
P/E (TTM)
21.9
P/S (TTM)
3.50
P/FCF (TTM)
27.45
Rev YoY
+12.7%
EPS YoY
+16.1%
Gross Margin
+44.8%
Op Margin
+20.8%
Net Debt
$1.79B
Current Ratio
1.93
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data