B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALKS
AlkermesCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue of $496 million exceeded the $454 million consensus cited by a stored Zacks review, and established products plus LUMRYZ provide funding for the orexin pipeline [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]. Positive alixorexton data and eventually convincing placebo-controlled ADHD data could support a rerating.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
ALKS 7290 Phase 1b symptom changes were exploratory, measured over 14 days, and disclosed without a treatment-versus-placebo efficacy result; Phase 2 could fail to replicate them [#8-K-2026-09-21].
Momentum
55
Value
60
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $43.00 · Bull $54.00 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-09-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $56.37
Why
Momentum55 · Δ7d +18.6
Value60 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -8.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ALKS 7290 Phase 1b symptom changes were exploratory, measured over 14 days, and disclosed without a treatment-versus-placebo efficacy result; Phase 2 could fail to replicate them [#8-K-2026-09-21].
- • Alixorexton's upcoming idiopathic-hypersomnia readout could disappoint or be delayed [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
- • The ALKS 7290 announcement did not establish placebo-adjusted efficacy, while higher R&D and SG&A spending and a lowered GAAP outlook constrain near-term earnings quality.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Alixorexton idiopathic-hypersomnia Phase 2 readout
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
55
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.6
Δ21d
+35.9
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.2
Δ21d
-14.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 54.6 / Value 59.7 / Sentiment 50.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$7.46B
Beta
0.44
Shares Out
167.76M
P/E (TTM)
13.9
P/S (TTM)
3.04
P/FCF (TTM)
9.42
Rev YoY
+27.0%
EPS YoY
-99.4%
Gross Margin
+82.1%
Op Margin
+8.6%
Net Debt
-$1.25B
Current Ratio
2.30
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data