B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALKS
AlkermesANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Commercial portfolio growth, LUMRYZ contribution, and potential orexin pipeline expansion provide a credible medium-term growth path. Q2 proprietary product revenue was $411.7 million, including $96.6 million from LUMRYZ [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.1.
What can break
CEO transition and execution under the new leadership structure remain untested [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Momentum
30
Value
60
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $53.00 · Bull $62.00 · Bear $40.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $55.98
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d +6.4
Value60 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +12.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CEO transition and execution under the new leadership structure remain untested [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
- • Commercial exposure is concentrated in VIVITROL, ARISTADA, LYBALVI, and LUMRYZ.
- • GAAP profitability weakened materially despite revenue growth, while product concentration, clinical readout risk, regulatory timing, and execution under the new CEO could limit valuation expansion.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-28
Q2 commercial growth with mixed earnings quality
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
30
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.4
Δ21d
-36.1
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.1
Δ21d
+13.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 30.0 / Value 60.5 / Sentiment 81.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$53.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.36B
Beta
0.44
Shares Out
167.76M
P/E (TTM)
13.9
P/S (TTM)
3.04
P/FCF (TTM)
9.42
Rev YoY
+27.0%
EPS YoY
-99.4%
Gross Margin
+82.1%
Op Margin
+8.6%
Net Debt
-$1.25B
Current Ratio
2.30
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data