B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALK
Alaska Air GroupANYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Operational execution is improving, with leading year-to-date on-time performance, completed integration milestones, new transatlantic service, June profitability, and strong premium, corporate, cargo, and loyalty growth [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.3.
What can break
Debt and finance leases increased, with adjusted net debt to EBITDAR rising to 4.8x [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-20].
Momentum
19
Value
45
Sentiment
90
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $49.00 · Bull $62.00 · Bear $34.00Analysis 2026-08-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $60.84
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d -1.6
Value45 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment90 · Δ7d +5.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Debt and finance leases increased, with adjusted net debt to EBITDAR rising to 4.8x [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-20].
- • Fuel-price volatility can overwhelm revenue and operational gains.
- • Q2 remained loss-making as fuel costs rose 85% year over year and added roughly $600 million of expense.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-28
International expansion and integration execution
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.6
Δ21d
-48.9
Value
45
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-9.1
Sentiment
90
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.3
Δ21d
+5.4
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 19.3 / Value 44.5 / Sentiment 89.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.92B
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
111.6M
P/E (TTM)
41.6
P/S (TTM)
0.43
P/FCF (TTM)
32.94
Rev YoY
+9.7%
EPS YoY
-148.1%
Gross Margin
+10.8%
Op Margin
-0.3%
Net Debt
$4.74B
Current Ratio
0.55
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data