RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

ALK

Alaska Air GroupD
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Q3 revenue rose 14% to $4.3 billion, premium revenue grew about 25%, and loyalty cash remuneration grew 21%. Sustained unit-revenue growth could support the prior Alaska Accelerate thesis if fuel costs ease [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
BMO cited fuel, leverage and growth-related headwinds while cutting its target and forward EPS estimates (Investing.com).
Momentum
19
Value
45
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $37.00 · Bull $47.00 · Bear $25.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $53.50
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d -5.8
Value45 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment50 · Δ7d -14.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Bearish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • News driver: TD Cowen Cuts Alaska Air, Delta And United Price Targets Ahead Of Q3 Earnings.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -14.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • BMO cited fuel, leverage and growth-related headwinds while cutting its target and forward EPS estimates (Investing.com).
  • • Hawaiʻi weakness, international start-up costs, mid-single-digit Q4 non-fuel unit-cost growth, and Hawaiian integration remain execution risks [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20].
  • • The $147 million GAAP net loss, revised full-year adjusted loss outlook of $5.00–$5.50 per share, and $1.8 billion fuel expense above plan materially weaken the prior positive thesis [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20].

Catalyst clock

2027-01-31

Q4 unit revenue versus fuel costs

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-5.8
Δ21d
-10.2
Value
45
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.5
Δ21d
-11.3
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 19.1 / Value 45.3 / Sentiment 50.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$37.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.84B
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
111.6M
P/E (TTM)
41.6
P/S (TTM)
0.43
P/FCF (TTM)
32.94
Rev YoY
+9.7%
EPS YoY
-148.1%
Gross Margin
+10.8%
Op Margin
-0.3%
Net Debt
$4.74B
Current Ratio
0.55
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data