B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALIT
AlightCNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Better project revenue and first-half cash generation provide a basis for recovery if retention, recurring revenue and debt flexibility improve. The Q2 company release reported $511 million of revenue and $92 million of adjusted EBITDA.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
June 30 total debt of $1.996 billion makes sustained cash generation and financing flexibility important. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1809104/000162828026052572/alit-20260630xexx991.htm
Momentum
4
Value
70
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.00 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $5.00Analysis 2026-10-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.00
Why
Momentum4 · Δ7d +0.1
Value70 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -33.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • June 30 total debt of $1.996 billion makes sustained cash generation and financing flexibility important. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1809104/000162828026052572/alit-20260630xexx991.htm
- • No satisfactory refinancing or extension agreement had been reached as of the October 14 disclosure. [#8-K-2026-10-14] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1809104/000162828026065893/alit-20261014.htm
- • Revenue and gross profit declined year over year, second-half guidance is soft, and the October 8-K adds financing uncertainty without an agreed transaction.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-15
Q3 results test weak second-half outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
4
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.8
Value
70
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-33.9
Δ21d
-39.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 3.6 / Value 69.9 / Sentiment 45.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$232.48M
Beta
1.10
Shares Out
26.42M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.1
P/S (TTM)
0.42
P/FCF (TTM)
5.45
Rev YoY
-3.2%
EPS YoY
-99.1%
Gross Margin
+18.9%
Op Margin
+2.9%
Net Debt
$1.6B
Current Ratio
1.38
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data