B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALHC
Alignment HealthcareCNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 demonstrated simultaneous scale and margin progress: membership and revenue grew above 30%, adjusted MBR reached the company's lowest level as a public company, and first-half adjusted EBITDA was $106 million. Continued AVA and Care Anywhere execution could unlock more earnings from the existing membership base [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-31].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -21.7.
What can break
Q2 included $6.5 million of unfavorable prior-year development and additional reserves, creating medical-cost and claims-estimation risk.
Momentum
5
Value
54
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.00 · Bull $19.00 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $24.08
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d +2.0
Value54 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment72 · Δ7d -21.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -21.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Q2 included $6.5 million of unfavorable prior-year development and additional reserves, creating medical-cost and claims-estimation risk.
- • Recent headlines are dominated by law-firm investigations and possible-claim solicitations; these are not evidence of proven violations but may sustain headline pressure.
- • Only about 30% of full-year adjusted EBITDA is expected in the second half as clinical investment and Part D seasonality weigh on profitability.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-16
September conferences may clarify the 2027 product and investment cadence
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
+2.8
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-21.7
Δ21d
-27.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 4.9 / Value 53.9 / Sentiment 71.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.79B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
207.44M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3637.8
P/S (TTM)
1.16
P/FCF (TTM)
27.91
Rev YoY
+31.6%
EPS YoY
+127.3%
Gross Margin
+12.4%
Op Margin
+1.2%
Net Debt
-$239.87M
Current Ratio
1.70
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data