B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALHC
Alignment HealthcareDNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 membership rose 31.5% year over year, adjusted gross profit rose 35.3%, and the adjusted medical benefits ratio improved about 40 basis points. Successful 2027 enrollment without claims-cost deterioration could extend operating leverage.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
Medical-cost pressure could prevent delivery of Q3 adjusted gross profit and EBITDA guidance. [#IR-Q2-2026-07-30] Company Q2 release
Momentum
3
Value
56
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.40 · Bull $12.50 · Bear $4.80Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.31
Why
Momentum3 · Δ7d +1.0
Value56 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment50 · Δ7d +4.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Medical-cost pressure could prevent delivery of Q3 adjusted gross profit and EBITDA guidance. [#IR-Q2-2026-07-30] Company Q2 release
- • New-county and provider-network expansion may add members without producing expected margins. Company 2027 portfolio announcement
- • A weaker Star Rating, higher utilization, or costly new-market enrollment could offset growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · AMC
2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
3
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+1.3
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
-11.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 3.0 / Value 56.1 / Sentiment 50.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.67B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
207.44M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2178.4
P/S (TTM)
1.16
P/FCF (TTM)
27.91
Rev YoY
+31.6%
EPS YoY
+127.3%
Gross Margin
+12.4%
Op Margin
+1.2%
Net Debt
-$239.87M
Current Ratio
1.70
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data