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ALHC

Alignment HealthcareA
Nasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The official Q2 release documents strong operating momentum and higher FY26 guidance across membership, revenue, adjusted gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA. Post-print analyst views are mixed but include Goldman Sachs maintaining Buy with a $25 target and KeyBanc maintaining Buy with a $28 target.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.7.
What can break
CEO and director open-market sales are a negative sentiment signal, but do not establish an operating or accounting problem.
Momentum
3
Value
54
Sentiment
94
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.50 · Bull $23.50 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $24.08
Why
Momentum3 · Δ7d +0.8
Value54 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment94 · Δ7d -5.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • CEO and director open-market sales are a negative sentiment signal, but do not establish an operating or accounting problem.
  • • Incremental clinical, AI, automation, hiring, and market-expansion investments could compress near-term margins and cash earnings.
  • • The market reaction was sharply negative despite strong reported operating metrics, with a reported 11.39% after-hours decline after the July 30 print and roughly a 20% decline in the July 31 session.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-16

September investor conferences could clarify the investment cadence

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
3
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+0.6
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
94
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.7
Δ21d
-5.7
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 3.2 / Value 54.0 / Sentiment 94.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$23.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.79B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
207.44M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3637.8
P/S (TTM)
1.16
P/FCF (TTM)
27.91
Rev YoY
+31.6%
EPS YoY
+127.3%
Gross Margin
+12.4%
Op Margin
+1.2%
Net Debt
-$239.87M
Current Ratio
1.70
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data